Wizards vs Hawks Picks and Predictions: Middle of the Road Eastern Foes Collide

Two teams looking to improve their positions in the Eastern Conference playoff race will face off on Tuesday night as the Washington Wizards visit the Atlanta Hawks.

Both squads have been hovering around .500 for much of the season. Washington (28-32) comes in having lost two straight, while Atlanta (31-30) has won two in a row. 

With both teams needing every win they can get down the stretch, we can expect both Washington and Atlanta to take this one seriously. 

We’ll break down what that means for bettors in our free NBA picks and predictions for Wizards vs. Hawks on February 28.

Wizards vs Hawks best odds

Wizards vs Hawks picks and predictions

For much of the year, the Hawks have been the most average team in the NBA. Their record has rarely drifted far from .500, they’ve kept a point differential at nearly a perfect zero, and they are 19-19 against Eastern Conference opponents. 

That’s been enough to keep the Hawks firmly in the playoff race, though they’re likely looking at a play-in game or two to make the final bracket.

Meanwhile, the Wizards are just barely hanging around at the bottom of the play-in standings. Washington currently holds the 12th seed in the East, just a half-game ahead of the Bulls. Similar to the Hawks, the Wizards have been a very average team, with a point differential of just -0.2. 

In other words, these are two teams that have been able to put together wins against good teams, get beat by bad teams, and do just enough to hang around in the playoff race rather than tank in an effort to draft Victor Wembanyama in June.

These squads do differ in one respect: They play at different paces, and that difference has become pronounced in recent days. The Wizards have played to an average total of around 126 points, while Atlanta has been slightly higher, with an average total of about 134. 

Recent games don’t look nearly that close, however. Washington has hit the Under four straight times, never reaching more than 127 points in a game. The most dramatic example came on Sunday, when they lost 102-82 to Chicago, missing their total by a massive 39 points.

Meanwhile, Atlanta has been on a scoring binge. The Hawks beat the Brooklyn Nets 129-127 on Sunday, marking the third time in four games they beat the Over by at least 23 points. Atlanta has scored at least 125 points in four of its last five games, and both the Hawks and their opponents have scored at least 100 points in 36 straight contests.

That said, the Hawks don’t normally go that crazy on the scoreboard, and this may be a fleeting trend. Atlanta has actually played to the Under in four of its last seven games, each time playing to a total of 231 or less. In fact, in their last 10 games, the Hawks have only reached 235 points four times, and in one of those cases, the total was just 236. 

Despite this, oddsmakers are expecting a fairly high-scoring matchup tonight. The total sits at 234.5 at many sites, and that’s simply too high for a Wizards team that regularly plays far below this number. Sure, Atlanta can score, but it isn’t the kind of high-tempo team like the Golden State Warriors that will completely take their opponents out of their game plan. 

With both teams needing a win, this should be a game where both sides put in at least some defensive effort. All the numbers are clear: the Under is the right play tonight.

My best bet: Under 234.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Wizards vs Hawks spread analysis

The spread for tonight’s game opened with Atlanta as a 7-point favorite. While that number has bounced around throughout the day, the consensus line still stands as Hawks -7. 

Both teams have been slightly disappointing against the spread this season. Washington is 28-29-3 ATS on the year, with Atlanta at 27-34 ATS.

A lot has been made this year of the dramatic home/road splits throughout the NBA. Interestingly, however, these two teams haven’t really been a part of that trend. Atlanta is just 17-12 straight up at home, while the Wizards are a surprisingly solid 14-19 on the road.

All that said, the Hawks are still the better team here, and come into tonight’s contest completely healthy with no reported injuries. Washington can’t say the same. Kristaps Porzingis (22.8 ppg) is doubtful tonight with a knee injury, while Monte Morris (10.4 ppg) is now out with back soreness. With two starters either out or potentially seriously limited, the Wizards could be in for a tough time tonight.

Seven points is a lot when we’re dealing with two mediocre teams, as the variance in this game is very large. But given the injuries on Washington’s side, I’m fairly comfortable taking the Hawks and laying the points at home.

Wizards vs Hawks Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s total opened at 234 points. There’s been a little upward movement, with 234.5 now being the most common Over/Under, though there are plenty of sites that haven’t added the hook as of noon on Tuesday.

I’ve already written about how neither team actually plays to an average total of 234 or more, which is the first sign that this number may be too high. Usually, there would be some short-term trend that suggests the total should be higher, but that’s not really the case here unless you put a lot of stock in Atlanta’s last four games, which have included three enormous scorelines. 

Outside of those three nights, however, the Hawks have played the same way they have all year: relatively fast-paced, but not out of control, and with totals that tended to land in the low 130s. The Wizards play slower and hold opponents to just 46.5% from the field.

The Wizards' injuries shouldn’t account for this number, either. Sure, Porzingis is a strong interior defender, but he makes an even bigger impact on the offensive end, while Morris isn’t a significant factor on defense. Backup center Daniel Gafford is also a solid defender, so Washington should suffer far more on offense than defense.

Again, this number is simply too high to ignore. I’m betting the Under tonight.

Wizards vs Hawks betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in Washington’s last four games. Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Hawks.

Wizards vs Hawks game info

Wizards vs Hawks key injuries

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