The Miami Heat will look to hold on to their position at the top of the Eastern Conference play-in bracket as they host the lowly Washington Wizards on Monday night.
Washington will be shorthanded, and my Wizards vs. Heat predictions expect Miami to cover.
Let’s see how this game might play out in my free NBA picks for Monday, March 3.
Wizards vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Heat -8.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
As we saw in the first matchup between these teams in November, this is a tough matchup for the Washington Wizards. The Miami Heat won 118-98 in Mexico City, holding Washington to just 41.8% shooting overall and 7-for-35 shooting from 3-point range. Miami also easily won the rebounding battle 65-44, limiting extra possessions for the Wizards. The game was never close.
Unfortunately for Washington, the situation tonight looks worse in nearly every possible way. For one, the Wizards will be without leading scorer Jordan Poole (21.0 ppg), who's listed as out with an elbow injury. Poole was one of the few bright spots for Washington against the Heat, scoring 21 points that night.
Even with Poole, the Wizards aren't scoring in bunches with regularity. Washington is dead last in offensive rating at 105.7, and even with a fast-paced approach, it's only averaging 108.4 ppg.
That makes it difficult to win against quality teams under the best of circumstances — especially when you consider Washington is among the worst defensive squads in the NBA. That combination gives the Wizards a -12.4 point differential on the season, the worst gap in the league.
The Heat may be able to exploit Washington’s weaknesses even better tonight than they did back in November. Bam Adebayo (17.2 ppg) has been scoring more lately, averaging 21.2 ppg in February and putting up 30 last night against the Knicks. He was also able to score 32 points and grab 14 rebounds against the Wizards in the Mexico City game.
Washington will have even less depth up front to deal with Adebayo tonight. Rookie Alex Sarr will do his best, but it’ll be a tall order for him to contain the stronger Adebayo in the paint, and the Wizards no longer have Jonas Valanciunas to spell Sarr and throw another large body at the Miami center.
These factors make it hard to believe the Wizards can stay in tonight’s game against a Heat team that was always going to be a difficult test for them.
Wizards vs Heat same-game parlay
Heat -8.5
Wizards team total Under 105.5
Bam Adebayo 20+ points
This should be a big night for the Heat, but more specifically, it should be a tough night for this Wizards offense, which was already struggling and will have even more trouble scoring without Poole in the lineup. Miami is solid defensively and should be able to keep Washington Under its team total tonight, even at a paltry 105.5 number.
On the other hand, Miami has multiple ways to score against one of the worst defenses in the league. I’m going with Bam Adebayo tonight to reach the 20-point mark. He's hit this total in five of his last eight games, and should have his way with a frontcourt that hasn’t had the same size or experience since Washington dealt Jonas Valanciunas.
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Wizards vs Heat odds
Wizards vs Heat live odds
Wizards vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Washington +12.5 | Miami -12.5
- Moneyline: Washington +500 | Miami -700
- Over/Under: Over 223.5 | Under 223.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Wizards vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- These teams have similar records against the spread, with the Wizards going 26-32-1 ATS and the Heat putting up a 25-33-1 ATS mark for backers.
- There has only been one meeting between these teams this season, with Miami winning 118-98 on a neutral court and covering as a 10-point favorite.
- The Over has a 33-26 record in Heat games, and is a dead even 29-29-1 when the Wizards play.
- Washington games are averaging 229.2 ppg, while Miami is playing to an average total of 221.2 ppg.
Wizards vs Heat trend
The Heat are 3-0 ATS in their last three home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Heat.
How to watch Wizards vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Monday, 3-3-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | MNMT2. FanDuel Sports Network - Sun |
Wizards vs Heat latest injuries
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