The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide face off against the No. 15 Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville on Wednesday night.
These are two of the most talented teams in the SEC but the Razorbacks have dropped two of their last three while the Tide are a perfect 3-0 in conference play and coming off a rout against Kentucky.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close high-scoring matchup with college basketball betting lines opening with Bama as a slim 1-point road favorite and the Over/Under at 152.5. Here are my best free Alabama vs. Arkansas college basketball picks and predictions for January 11.
Alabama vs Arkansas best odds
Alabama vs Arkansas picks and predictions
Both teams have plenty of offensive firepower and play at a blazing-fast pace, but the total looks a tad too high here. Keep in mind that these teams are actually higher rated on defense than offense according to KenPom, with Arkansas ninth in the country and Alabama 11th.
The reason why we are seeing such a high O/U for this contest is that both sides love to run the floor. Arkansas is 56th in the country in adjusted tempo while Bama is third.
That said, neither team is that efficient when it comes to shooting. The Tide are 82nd in the country in effective field goal percentage (52.3%) with that number dropping to 49.9% on the road. The Razorbacks are 104th with a 51.6 EFG% and they have a 42.9 EFG% across three SEC games.
These squads have the length and athleticism to guard each other and they both lock down perimeter shooters, with the Razorbacks 23rd in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (29%) and the Tide 12th (27.8%).
KenPom is used as a reference point for oddsmakers and unless there are major injuries or lineup changes, it's uncommon to see lines that are significantly different. However, the current live total for this matchup is 4.5 points higher than the projected total at KenPom.
My best bet: Under 153.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Alabama vs Arkansas spread analysis
The Razorbacks are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in conference play, and are fresh off a 72-59 loss on the road to Auburn. They went a pathetic 2-16 from 3-point range in that contest while also shooting just 19-32 from the charity stripe.
Poor shooting from deep has been a problem for Arkansas all season, with the Razorbacks just 342nd in the nation in 3-point percentage (28.7%). They are much more effective inside the arc, where they rank 30th in 2-point percentage (55%).
Both of their conference losses came on the road and they are still a perfect 8-0 at home which includes a 74-68 victory against No. 20 Missouri last week.
Guard Ricky Council IV leads the team with 18.1 points per game. Five-star freshman Anthony Black is averaging 12.5 ppg and is coming off his best performance of the season after scoring 23 points with seven rebounds and four assists versus Auburn.
Another highly-regarded freshman Nick Smith (12.8 ppg) has missed the last four games with a knee injury and there's no timetable on his return.
The Tide are rolling and are fresh off a dominant 78-52 win against Kentucky. They have won all three of their conference games by double-digits and have excelled despite having the third-toughest strength of schedule in the country according to ESPN.
Alabama's only two losses came against No. 6 UConn and No. 8 Gonzaga and the Tide boast victories against Michigan State, North Carolina, Memphis, and No. 1 Houston.
Freshman Brandon Miller (19.1 ppg and 43.5% shooting from deep) has been Bama's best player with guard Mark Sears adding 14.7 ppg. Meanwhile, Noah Clowney (8.5 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and Charles Bediako (6.3 rpg and 2.1 bpg in 21.5 mpg) give the Tide plenty of size down low.
One area where they need to get better is taking care of the ball. The Tide are 296th in the country in turnover rate (20.2%) and rank just 321st in opponent turnover rate (15.7%). The Razorbacks do an excellent job of pressuring ball handlers and are 22nd in opponent turnover rate (23%).
Alabama vs Arkansas Over/Under analysis
I already outlined why I believe the Under is my best bet for this game and the recent betting trends also support that play.
The Tide have cashed the Under in their last two games while limiting Mississippi to 62 points and holding Kentucky to 52. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks are 5-0 to the Under in their previous five contests and have surrendered just 66.7 ppg in conference play.
The last three meetings between these SEC foes also easily hit the Under. While these lineups are completely different than last season the free-flowing, guard-focused styles they play with are similar.
Alabama vs Arkansas betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Razorbacks' last five games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more College basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Arkansas.
Alabama vs Arkansas game info
| Location: | Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AK |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 11, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
