The biggest challenge of conference tournament week is the quick turnaround, and that’s especially true for the Northwestern Wildcats.
The Wildcats, who have been fighting for their lives since February, advanced to Round 2 of the Big Ten tournament with a victory over Minnesota on Wednesday.
Waiting for NU is a well-rest Wisconsin Badgers team that plays a very physical brand of basketball on both ends of the floor and I take that into account with my Northwestern vs. Wisconsin predictions.
Find out why I'm backing the Badgers with my free college basketball picks for Thursday, March 13.
Northwestern vs Wisconsin prediction
Who will win Northwestern vs Wisconsin?
Wisconsin is rested up and ready to make a run in the Big Ten tournament. It handled NU when the Wildcats had all their stars and now faces a worn-down version of that roster as a hefty favorite. The Badgers get through to Round 3.
My best bet: Wisconsin -7.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Northwestern Wildcats and coach Chris Collins should be commended for their fight since February. Northwestern lost its top two scorers early into that month and dug its heels in to make the conference tournament and earn a win over Minnesota in Round 1.
Now that we’ve given NU that pat on the back, it’s time to bet on the Wisconsin Badgers.
Wisconsin was on track for a Top 4 seed in the Big Ten but brain fart games against Oregon and Penn State dealt the Badgers a 2-3 SU and ATS finish to the regular season, sliding UW to the No. 6 seed.
The grind of the Big Ten is more than enough to break the best of teams. But with Northwestern’s depleted roster playing major minutes in the win over Minnesota (a win that almost got away from them in the final minutes), the Badgers are the last team you want to face on no rest.
Wisconsin comes after you on offense, with head coach Greg Gard installing screen-heavy schemes that constantly have players in movement. That also means constant contact, which adds up over 40 minutes.
The Badgers are among the better offenses when creating chances off screens and pick-and-rolls (ranked 69th and 25th in those schemes at ShotQualityBets), which in turn forces opponents to switch off screens.
Those switches generate on-ball mismatches and isolation opportunities, which is where UW thrives — ranked 13th in iso sets. The Badgers get good looks at the basket from those one-on-one takes — rated 11th in offensive efficiency in the country — while also generating fouls and more than 27 points per game from free throws (83.6% is the best FT% in the land).
The Wildcats may fight through the first half of Thursday’s matchup with the Badgers but eventually NU is going to break — the same way it did when Wisconsin beat Northwestern 75-69 on February 1. The Badgers overcame a 6-point hole at halftime to blast the Wildcats 50-38 in the final 20 minutes.
The Badgers will not only benefit from an exhausted opponent but the four-day break in play allows them to get senior guard Max Klesmit back in the lineup after he missed the final three games of the season. Sophomore 6-foot-11 forward Nolan Winter is also probable after that hiatus allowed him to rest his injured wrist.
Early game projections range between Wisconsin -6 and -7 with the initial opening spread at -7.5. That is way too short, not only for the gap between these Big Ten teams but also the rest edge for the head-hunting Badgers.
Northwestern vs Wisconsin same-game parlay (SGP)
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Northwestern vs Wisconsin odds
Northwestern vs Wisconsin live odds
Northwestern vs Wisconsin opening odds
- Spread: Northwestern +7.5 | Wisconsin -7.5
- Moneyline: Northwestern +280 | Wisconsin -360
- Over/Under: Over 141.5 | Under 141.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Northwestern vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
Wisconsin has covered the spread in 23 of its last 37 games overall and went 11-3 ATS away from the Kohl Center this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Northwestern vs. Wisconsin.
How to watch Northwestern vs Wisconsin
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
Northwestern vs Wisconsin key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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