The Big Ten tournament is the last chance for the “Big Dance” when it comes to the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Ohio State, which faces the Iowa Hawkeyes in the opening round of the conference tournament tonight, was headed for a spot in the Field of 68 before bellyflopping to the finish line.
The Buckeyes dropped four of their final six regular season contests to sit firming on the NCAA Tournament bubble and need a big showing from junior guard Bruce Thornton this week.
He’s primed for a busy game in my best college basketball picks and Iowa vs. Ohio State predictions for March 12.
Iowa vs Ohio State prediction
Who will win Iowa vs Ohio State?
The Hawkeyes just made the cut for the Big Ten tournament, but enter as the worst defense in the postseason. Ohio State is not only motivated to move on in the bracket but get off the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Buckeyes advance.
My best bet
Bruce Thornton Over 17.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Bruce Thornton picked the worst possible time to have his worst game of the year. The junior guard scored just nine points on 2-for-11 shooting in the loss at Indiana on Saturday.
A hulking Hoosiers lineup threw a lot of big bodies at Thornton in a very physical game, with OSU head coach Jake Diebler questioning the “no calls” in Assembly Hall. That ice-cold effort from Thornton came on the heels of three straight 20-plus performances from Thornton.
“I don’t want to take away from what Indiana did,” Diebler told reporters. “And I also have huge, great, unbelievable confidence in Bruce Thornton moving into the Big Ten Tournament. He’s done an unbelievable job for us all season long. His leadership has been great. He’s hit big-time shots for us. He’ll respond. He’ll respond well.”
On the season, Thornton averages 17.5 points and is the stick that stirs the drink for this Ohio State Buckeyes offense. Going back to December, Ohio State is 2-5 SU in games in which he scores less than 15 points.
Thornton and OSU thumped Iowa 82-65 back on January 27 thanks to a 52-point second half. Thornton finishing with 15 points on 5-of-8 shooting - a relatively quiet day considering he gets up 11.6 field goal attempts per contests.
Tonight’s matchup with the Hawkeyes isn’t just about advancing to the second round of the Big Ten tournament. Ohio State needs to score some style points to stay on the radar of the selection committee.
The stage is set for Thornton to have a big game on Wednesday. Iowa plays with pace and can quickly put up points, which could turn up the tempo for a Buckeyes team that runs on the more methodical side, in terms of conference standards.
In turn, the Iowa Hawkeyes don’t push back much on defense. They enter the Big Ten postseason as the lowest ranked defense among the 15 qualifying teams, allowing more than 79 points per outing, and don’t have the same interior beef that gave Thornton fits as Indiana did.
Game projections call for 80-plus points from the Buckeyes and digging into those models we find Thornton forecasted for between 18 and 22 points against Iowa tonight. My number comes in just shy of 20 points.
Iowa vs Ohio State same-game parlay (SGP)
Bruce Thornton 15+ points
Devin Royal 7+ rebounds
Ohio State Team Total Over 80.5
Bruce Thornton bounces back from a bad showing in the season finale and carries the Buckeyes to a big win tonight.
Devin Royal has nine rebounds in the first meeting with Iowa and is projected for around nine again in this Big Ten tournament tilt.
The Buckeyes will play a quicker pace against Iowa, with game models calling for 80-plus points.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa vs Ohio State odds
Iowa vs Ohio State live odds
Iowa vs Ohio State opening odds
- Spread: Iowa +5 (-110) | Ohio State -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Iowa +180 | Ohio State -220
- Over/Under: Over 154 (-110) | Under 154 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Iowa vs Ohio State betting trend to know
Iowa has only covered the spread in 12 of its last 34 games (-9.95 Units/-27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Ohio State.
How to watch Iowa vs Ohio State
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Iowa vs Ohio State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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