The second round of the SEC Tournament tips off on Thursday afternoon with a clash between the No. 8 seeded Mississippi Rebels and the No. 9 seed Arkansas Razorbacks.
The Rebels struggled down the stretch but my Mississippi vs Arkansas predictions expects them to outlast a weary Razorbacks squad.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this conference tournament clash on March 13, with tipoff at 1 p.m. ET.
Who will win Arkansas vs Mississippi?
The Arkansas Razorbacks have impressed with their resilient play lately but after likely punching their ticket to the NCAA tournament, expect a bit of a letdown performance on Thursday afternoon.
This is a team that is missing its two best players and their shortened rotation will tire on the second day of a back-to-back. The Mississippi Rebels have backed into the postseason by covering the spread just once in their last eight games but they are still a strong team on both ends of the floor.
The Rebels defeated Arkansas 73-66 when these teams clashed in Fayetteville on January 8, and they'll beat a tired Arkansas squad again on Thursday.
Arkansas vs Mississippi prediction
My best bet: Mississippi -3.5 (-110 at bet365)
After an ugly start to their season, the Razorbacks are 8-4 straight up and 8-3-1 against the spread in their last 12 games. What's especially impressive is that they've been without point guard Boogie Fland (15.1 ppg, 5.7 apg) since January 18, while leading scorer Adou Thiero (15.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg) has missed the last five games.
However, I think their short-handed lineup will catch up to them here. While they had a 20-point lead in the second half against South Carolina yesterday, they allowed the Gamecocks to get within a single point with four minutes remaining.
They ended up winning 72-68 but the fact that they faded down the stretch is especially worrying on the second day of a back-to-back. Especially since they are rolling with a seven-man rotation and D.J. Wagner, Johnell Davis, and Trevon Brazile barely came off the floor.
They could have tired legs on Thursday which will be exploited by the Rebels who apply a ton of pressure on defense and push the pace on offense.
The Rebels struggled down the stretch going just 6-8 SU and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games. That said, they still finished the regular season with a 21-10 record and are in the Top 30 of the KenPom ratings on offense and defense. Ole Miss is fourth in the country with a turnover margin of +5.5 per game while Arkansas is 130th with a margin of +0.9.
The Rebels beat the Razorbacks by seven points when they previously clashed and that was on the road when Arkansas still had Fland and Thiero. Without their two best players, Arkansas will have a tough time keeping up on the scoreboard.
It's also worth mentioning that the Razorbacks have put out some underwhelming performances in early games this season. Whether that's due to a lack of focus or poor preparation from head coach John Calipari, I'm not comfortable backing them on another noon CT start here.
Arkansas vs Mississippi same-game parlay (SGP)
Mississippi -3.5
Over 144.5
Both of these offenses prefer a quicker tempo, sitting inside the Top-100 in average possession length. Mississippi has also taken a step back on defense over the last couple of months, leading to some higher-scoring contests. The Over is 6-1 in the Rebels' last seven games while going 5-1 in the Razorbacks' previous six contests.
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Arkansas vs Mississippi odds
Arkansas vs Mississippi live odds
Arkansas vs Mississippi opening odds
- Spread: Arkansas +3.5 | Mississippi -3.5
- Moneyline: Arkansas +140 | Mississippi -165
- Over/Under: Over 144 | Under 144
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arkansas vs Mississippi betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in Mississippi's last seven games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Mississippi.
How to watch Arkansas vs Mississippi
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV |
SEC Network |
Arkansas vs Mississippi key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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