Alabama vs Houston Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tight Margins in Top-10 Clash

There’s a Top-10 matchup in college basketball going down on Saturday, as the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1) square off against the No. 1 Houston Cougars (9-0) in a monumental clash.

The Cougars are the favorite as the undefeated host, and their perfect record will be on the line in what is sure to be a challenge against a tough Crimson Tide team.

Will Houston’s elite defense propel its way to yet another victory?

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Alabama Crimson Tide and Houston Cougars on Saturday, December 10 to find out. 

Alabama vs Houston best odds

Alabama vs Houston picks and predictions

Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars are a fearsome basketball team. Ranked No. 1 in the country, the Cougars have a chance to pull off a marquee win to add to their resume. Houston’s been undeniably dominant thus far, so the question boils down to whether or not that success can continue in what will be a step up in competition.

Houston also checks in at No. 1 overall in KenPom, thanks primarily to an elite defense ranking No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars have the top-scoring defense in the nation at just 47.3 PPG, routinely shutting down opponents’ offensive attacks. They thrive in forcing tough looks from the field, ranking first in field-goal defense (30.9%) and third in 3-point defense (22.9%).

Marcus Sasser’s return to the fold has been a welcome sight for Sampson and company, as he leads the team with 16.9 PPG. Junior Tramon Mark (10.1 PPG) is the only other Cougar averaging double figures, although senior J’Wan Roberts (9.9 PPG) and freshman Jarace Walker (9.6 PPG) aren’t far behind.

Alabama checks in at No. 14 overall in KenPom, ranking 22nd in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. The Crimson Tide have already scored notable wins against North Carolina (in four overtimes) and Michigan State, while the lone blemish on the record is to an undefeated UConn team. 

Alabama relies heavily on 3-point shots to generate offense, ranking ninth in 3-pointers made per game (10.9) and fifth in attempts from downtown per game (31.0). That’s a dicey proposition in this matchup against an elite defense. 

The Cougars are 18-6 to the Under in their last 24 home games and I envision that trend continuing here against a fairly one-dimensional Alabama offense. Houston is 36-14-1 in its last 51 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600 and this one could be a struggle for points, so give me the Under. 

My best bet: Under 138.5 (-112 at Unibet)

Alabama vs Houston spread analysis

This line varies from book to book, so be sure to shop around as always. 

This line opened Houston -9 at most locations before experiencing some line movement in favor of the Crimson Tide. I agree with this line movement, and would still recommend a look at Alabama at +8.5. Let me explain.

Houston is undeniably an elite team, but it thrives based primarily on its efforts defensively. The Cougars are 7-2 ATS and can blow out weaker opposition, but the handicap becomes quite different when facing difficult opposition. Houston’s offense is 21st in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric, so racing up the points against a tough Alabama defense (17th in defensive efficiency) may not be so easy.

In what could be a tough test between two teams that play good defense, I’m inclined to take the points with the underdog. Houston has tended to get into rock fights when stepping up in competition, notably winning 53-48 against Saint Mary’s in its toughest test of the season while failing to cover the -9.5 spread. 

Alabama vs Houston Over/Under analysis

There has been a lot of love for the Over in the market, as the total has been bet up from 130.5 at open to as high as 138.5 at current. While early money may have been justified, any value at open has been erased at the time of this writing.

We’ve already drooled over Houston’s defense, so let’s take a look at the Alabama side of things. The Tide are no slouch defensively, either, ranking ninth in field goal defense by allowing opponents to shoot just 36.4% from the field. They thrive off forcing difficult shots down low, ranking fourth in 2-point defense (39.7%). 

Houston isn’t terrific from 3-point range offensively, converting just 7.3 makes per game (201st) on 34% (187th). The Cougars prefer to get into the paint and convert easy looks, ranking 60th in 2-point field goals per game. They could face tough sledding in that department Saturday against a top-notch Crimson Tide defense.

The Tide should limit the Cougars’ attempts to get easy looks on one end, while the Cougars will limit the Tides’ relentless pursuit of 3-pointers. Each defense appears well-equipped to limit the opposing offense. 

Alabama vs Houston betting trend to know

The Under is 36-14-1 in Houston’s last 51 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more College basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Houston.

Alabama vs Houston game info

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