The USC Trojans look to snap a two-game losing streak when they host the sliding Penn State Nittany Lions tonight at the Galen Center.
Despite a battle between two struggling teams, my Penn State vs. USC predictions expect a high-scoring affair.
Find out why in my college basketball picks for February 11.
Penn State vs USC prediction
My best bet
Over 151.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The USC Trojans have been one of the best “Over” teams in the country from a betting perspective, going 17-6 O/U overall and 9-1 O/U in their last 10 games. I’m not jumping off the train now, so sign me up for another Over.
Eric Musselman’s squad has been all offense (22nd in adjusted efficiency since January 1, per BartTorvik) and little defense (121st) since the calendar flipped to 2025. Its dance partner on Tuesday, the Penn State Nittany Lions, ranked 137th in adjusted defensive efficiency in that period, so there’s a recipe for poor defensive play.
If you like more traditional numbers, consider Penn State has allowed 79.4 ppg across its last 10 games while USC has surrendered 79.8 ppg in the same span.
The Nittany Lions have been bitten by the injury bug. Starting forward Puff Johnson is out for the year, starting center Yanic Konan Niederhauser is questionable with an ankle injury, and star point guard Ace Baldwin has been battling through a back injury.
USC also has an injury concern. Leading scorer Desmond Claude (16.2 ppg) has missed the last two contests, and his status for tonight is unclear.
It’s tough to factor these injuries into the handicap. YNK might be Penn State’s best defensive player, whereas Claude is probably USC’s best offensive player. Given the uncertain status of both individuals, I’m chalking it up as a wash for now.
What we do know is there should be plenty of possessions. Penn State likes to push the pace (54th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo), and USC (134th) won’t mind.
The Nittany Lions attack the rim offensively (fifth in near-proximity attempt rate, per Haslametrics), and the Trojans are outside the Top 100 in allowing those looks, both in volume and efficiency.
On the flip side, USC ranks within the Top 20 in adjusted free throw rate and adjusted field goal percentage and should capitalize on a favorable matchup.
Penn State vs USC same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 151.5
USC -4.5
Penn State is truly a train wreck right now, losing nine of its last 10 games and dealing with several impact injuries. The Nittany Lions are 0-3 ATS in their last three games and are now on the second leg of the Southern California road trip after falling apart in the second half of a 54-78 loss to UCLA.
USC has been playing just fine. The Trojans narrowly fell 76-82 to a surging UCLA team before picking up a huge 70-64 victory over Michigan State.
Penn State is just 2-11 straight up in its last 13 road games, failing to show much of a “road warrior” spirit under head coach Mike Rhoades.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Penn State vs USC odds
Penn State vs USC live odds
Penn State vs USC opening odds
- Spread: Penn State +4.5 | USC -4.5
- Moneyline: Penn State +160 | USC -190
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 | Under 151.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Penn State vs USC betting trend to know
USC is 9-1 O/U in its last 10 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Penn State vs. USC.
How to watch Penn State vs USC
| Location | Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | BTN |
Penn State vs USC key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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