Fans of scoring are in for a treat this afternoon as the Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena.
Two of the fastest-playing teams in college basketball square off, and my Alabama vs. Kentucky predictions expect the Wildcats to pull ahead.
Find out why in my college basketball picks for Saturday, January 18.
Alabama vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet
Kentucky moneyline (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
The Kentucky Wildcats have already won six Quad-1 games in their first 17 games, the third-most in college basketball. This comes despite some defensive questions.
There’s no question they show up for the games against bigger opponents, however.
And while they’ve had some issues away from Rupp Arena, they’ve made their home court a fortress this season. Kentucky welcomed Florida a couple of weeks ago and won in a 106-100 shootout that felt like an NCAA Tournament game at times. That game, against another high-octane offense, is why I’m backing the Wildcats to win on Saturday.
Kentucky shoots the ball better at home than on the road and by a wide margin. Leading scorer Otega Oweh’s FG% is 18 percentage points higher at Rupp Arena, making more shots despite fewer attempts per game. And Koby Brea is shooting 31 percentage points higher at home from beyond the arc compared to the road.
On the whole, the Wildcats are feeding off the home crowd. Their assist-to-turnover ratio at home sits at 2.20, which is Top 5 nationally. They’re also forcing a higher number of turnovers defensively, an area where the Alabama Crimson Tide are struggling.
Mississippi forced 21 turnovers as it rolled the Tide on Tuesday night, and Alabama ranks middle of the pack nationally in turnover rate. In conference play, it's posted a turnover rate of 18.3%, ranking it in the bottom half of the SEC.
Offensively, Alabama has been limited at times by Mike Sears being the only reliable source of offense. Chris Youngblood is shooting just 31.8% from downtown in conference play, and Aden Holloway hasn’t asserted himself despite shooting the ball well in his last few outings.
Making matters worse, Grant Nelson is shooting just 44% from inside the arc in four SEC contests.
Sears will have to contend with Lamont Butler’s outstanding defense, meaning multiple players are going to need to step up for the Tide. I’m not convinced they are playing well enough for that to happen.
At the other end, the Tide force one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation, have shown weakness at times in securing the defensive backboard, and are now facing a team that thrives when the tempo is high.
Bama must slow down to win this game, but that isn’t going to happen, given it leads the nation in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. I’ll take the team that is playing better offensively and has more reliable weapons to win at home.
Alabama vs Kentucky same-game parlay (SGP)
Kentucky moneyline
Jaxson Robinson 3+ threes
Both teams to score 40+ in first half
Jaxson Robinson has been given the green light to let fly by Mark Pope, and he’s attempted 23 shots from beyond the arc in his last two games. He’s connected on 12 of those, and the odds of him getting another 3+ in a high-tempo game are quite high.
Kentucky ranks 13th nationally in first-half scoring, while Alabama has posted the second-most points of any team in the opening 20 minutes. This game should be played at a frenetic pace, and clearing the 40-point mark prior to halftime won’t be a tough ask of either offense.
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Alabama vs Kentucky odds
Alabama vs Kentucky live odds
Alabama vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Alabama +2 | Kentucky -2
- Moneyline: Alabama +125 | Kentucky -150
- Over/Under: Over 179.5 | Under 179.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Alabama vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Alabama has hit the team total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.45 Units / 34% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Alabama vs Kentucky
| Location: | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-18-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Alabama vs Kentucky key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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