Alabama vs Missouri Odds, Picks and Predictions: Sky-High Total Not High Enough

The Missouri Tigers put their undefeated home SEC record on the line on Saturday night as they play host to conference rival Alabama Crimson Tide.

Missouri failed its first test of the season, losing at home to Kansas in early December, but has since defeated three ranked teams. The Tigers now sit at 14-4 overall and 3-3 in the SEC this season. Meanwhile, Alabama is 16-2 on the season and a perfect 6-0 in SEC play.

Will the Crimson Tide suffer their first conference loss of the season? Read my college basketball picks and predictions below to find out. 

Alabama vs Missouri best odds

Alabama vs Missouri picks and predictions

Alabama has been one of the best teams in the country this season with two wins over the then-ranked No. 1 team in the nation. They also boast the fifth-ranked NET strength of schedule, playing a total of seven ranked teams with a 5-2 record in those contests.

Missouri did not face a ranked team until getting smoked at home by Kansas in December. However, the Tigers proved they are legit by defeating Illinois, Kentucky, and most recently Arkansas. The Tigers now boast the 17th-ranked NET SOS and have been extremely dangerous at home. 

Both teams have been machines offensively this season. The Crimson Tide rank 11th in scoring at 84.0 points per game and the Tigers rank 10th in the country at 84.1 points per contest. Alabama thrives on shooting threes and free throws to rack up its points. They average 29.3 attempts from deep (sixth in the nation) and 25.2 free throw attempts (fifth) per game. 

Bama also excels at rebounding its misses, pulling down 13.4 offensive boards per game, which ranks 16th in the country. Missouri, on the other hand, relies on efficiency and fast break points to get its scoring. The Tigers rank 21st in field goal percentage at 48.7% and seventh in 2-point percentage at 58.8%. They also lead the nation in steals per game at 11.7, which leads to so many fast breaks. 

However, the Tigers struggle mightily to guard the 3-point line and to prevent their opponents from hitting the boards. Missouri ranks 335th allowing 8.9 made threes per game and 355th allowing 2.6 offensive boards per contest. The Crimson Tide will make them pay in those two categories. 

Even though Alabama has a solid defense, its biggest strength is offense. On the other end, Missouri will still force some turnovers and attack the basket. This game just screams Over to me and I think we could see a game of around 170-180 points if things go right. 

My best bet: Over 162 (-109 at BetRivers)

Alabama vs Missouri spread analysis

Alabama will meet Mizzou’s offensive efficiency with their own defensive efficiency. Bama ranks third in the country in opponent field goal percentage, allowing their opponents to only shoot 37.1% from the field. However, the Tide can be very turnover prone. 

Alabama averages 15.2 turnovers per game, which ranks 334th in the nation. This will play right into Mizzou’s hands as it loves to pressure the ball and force mistakes to get its offense in transition. Four different Crimson Tide players average at least 2.0 turnovers per game and three different Tigers players average at least 1.5 steals per contest. 

In recent seasons, the home team and the underdog have controlled these meetings. The home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings and the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Missouri is 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against a team with a winning road record and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. 

These trends should continue tonight as the Tigers will put plenty of pressure on Alabama early and often. This game will be tight down the stretch and Alabama may just have enough talent to overcome the tough atmosphere and early onslaught to win outright. However, the Tigers are much more likely to cover this spread, as it should come down to the final possessions. 

Alabama vs Missouri Over/Under analysis

Even though Mizzou is fantastic at forcing turnovers, it struggles to stop opposing teams from scoring overall. They allow 75.4 points per game, which ranks 325th in the nation. Despite its impressive 14-4 record, it has allowed its opponents to reach 80 points in eight games this year. 

Despite Alabama’s fantastic rebounding ability, the Tider still allow a lot of offensive boards. They allow 12.5 offensive rebounds per game to their opponents, which is about the same as Mizzou. This combination will lead to several scoring opportunities for both teams even if they struggle to shoot the ball. 

The Over is 13-3 in Missouri’s last 16 home games and 15-7 in their last 22 games overall. The Over is 13-5-1 in Alabama’s last 19 road games and 21-8-1 in their last 30 games following a straight-up win. I love the likelihood of these trends continuing in this matchup and for the Over to hit with ease.

Alabama vs Missouri betting trend to know

The Over is 13-4-1 in the Crimson Tide’s last 18 road games against a team with a winning home record. Find more College basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Alabama.

Alabama vs Missouri game info

Alabama vs Missouri key injuries

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