Alabama vs South Carolina Odds, Picks and Predictions: Crimson Tide Don't Hold Back

The Alabama Crimson Tide bounced back in a big way on Saturday, securing a massive 108-59 blowout win over Georgia after slipping earlier in the week to Tennessee.

It costed them their top spot in the rankings, but it could have possibly been a blessing in disguise to have that slip occur now as opposed to in March. They will travel to face the South Carolina Gamecocks, who after losing eight straight and 12 of 15 have strung together two wins in their last three games.

Can the Tide keep the ball rolling and make an attempt to get back their number one spot, or will the Gamecocks do the unthinkable and play spoilers on Wednesday night?

Find out in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Alabama vs. South Carolina on Wednesday, February 22.

Alabama vs South Carolina best odds

Alabama vs South Carolina picks and predictions

Things have been ugly for South Carolina this season, to be quite frank. A 10-17 record and a 3-11 conference record are not what the program had in mind when they started the 2023 season.

And unfortunately for the Gamecocks, there isn't much to suggest that they are a better team than their record suggests. They rank 225th in KenPom overall adjusted efficiency — which ranks worst in the SEC — and with the next worst mark a whopping 80 spots better. Their offense (211th) and defense (241st) are equally horrendous, both in vacuum and again within the context of the SEC.

And after securing two wins in three games since snapping their eight-game losing streak, they get the pleasure of hosting the No. 2 ranked Crimson Tide — a team that dropped their first in-conference game just a week ago. Alabama, in comparison, may as well be playing an entirely different sport. It ranks second in KenPom, which includes the 14th best offensive efficiency and third-best defensive efficiency.

It's also achieved all of this against the ninth most difficult schedule — just one other team among the other Top 13 ranked teams has had a harder schedule. When splitting out to each side of the ball, it paints an even clearer picture of how good this team truly is.

Only two offenses rank higher than the Crimson Tide while having faced a tougher schedule of defenses (Baylor and Iowa). And the only teams that rank higher in defense than Alabama (Tennessee and UCLA) have faced the 34th and 45th toughest schedule of offenses compared to Bama's 12th-ranked schedule.

Not convinced yet? It's hard to find a glaring weakness across the Tide's game. They are the country's best rebounding team (first on defense, 23rd on offense) and that interior presence extends to rim defense, ranking 15th in blocks per game (5.1).

They average 83.4 ppg, the fifth-highest mark. Their 35.4% three-point percentage may only rank 105th in the nation, but they counteract that by bombarding teams with deep looks (fourth in 3-point attempts per game. They're also great at getting to the line (11th in free throw attempts).

Wednesday night's spread may be large, but the gap between these two teams is tangibly larger. Just four days ago, Alabama beat Georgia by 49 points as 18-point favorites — Tennessee is tangibly better than South Carolina and it arguably had way more to play for.

My best bet: Crimson Tide -16.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Alabama vs South Carolina spread analysis

The spread opened with Alabama as an 18-point favorite and has since moved to as low as -16.5, but some books are still showing 17.5s for those looking to go the other way.

Bama has gone 16-10-1 against the spread this year, good for a 61.5% cover rate. The Crimson Tide have been favored by 15 or more points seven times this year, and have gone 5-2 ATS in those games.

They have covered in three of their last four, and have gone 11-4 ATS dating back to December 28.

The Gamecocks, despite their horrendous win-loss record, have managed to still go 14-13 ATS (51.9%). However, they have managed an average margin of -2.9 ATS which is tied for the 25th-worst mark in the nation.

They have been able to cover in four of their last five, but as a road underdog, South Carolina has gone 3-6 ATS. As underdogs of 15 or more points, it has gone 2-3.

Alabama vs South Carolina Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 148 and has since moved a touch up to 148.5. 

The Crimson Tide have gone 14-12-1 to the Under (53.9%). Their form as of late has favored the Under more heavily, having gone 9-4-1 that way in their last 14 games.

They have been road favorites in seven games and have gone 5-2 to the Under (71.4%) in that split. In conference games as a whole they have gone 9-4-1.

South Carolina has gone 14-13 towards the Under (51.9%), and an even stronger 9-4 in home games (69.2%). As home underdogs specifically,  it has gone 6-3 that way.

Its totals have gone the other way as of late, however, going 8-4 to the Over in its last 12. Tonight's total of 148.5 is the highest total the Gamecocks have seen this year, and they have split the six totals of 140 or more.

Alabama vs South Carolina betting trend to know

Alabama has gone 5-2 ATS when favored by 15 or more points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. South Carolina.

Alabama vs South Carolina game info

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