Like it will be most nights this season in the SEC, it’s a big-time matchup when Texas A&M hosts Alabama.
Alabama has it rolling. It’s scored in bunches lately over its seven-game win streak and will come into this matchup full of confidence after beating South Carolina by 20.
And speaking of full of confidence, A&M has a nine-game win streak and has proven to win games in various ways during that time. Look at its most recent game as a good example. It went into a road atmosphere against Oklahoma without its best player, Wade Taylor, but it left with a win.
Read on for my Alabama vs. Texas A&M predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, January 11.
Alabama vs Texas A&M prediction
My best bet
Texas A&M moneyline (+120 at bet365)
My analysis
The themes surrounding this game aren’t short. Until the SEC Championship last season, Nate Oats was 0-3 lifetime against Buzz Williams; in the grand scheme, that game means little to me given the rest of the disadvantages the Aggies had.
There’s also the general thesis of an aggressive, perimeter defense such as Texas A&M's giving issues to a five-out offense like the Tide’s. More evidence can be found in some of the Alabama NCAA Tournament losses, like the one against San Diego State. Oddly enough, the Aztecs team from a season later pops up on Torvik and has one of the most similar efficiency profiles to this year's Aggies team. With all that said, I like this spot, and I’m taking Texas A&M to get the mild upset.
Aside from this matchup, I’m a fan of this A&M team because of one key stat: Shot volume. The Aggies finished last year with the third-largest advantage in college basketball in this state and are trending towards a similar finish this season. A big reason, perhaps the only reason, is that A&M is exceedingly good at second-chance points, with offensive rebounds on nearly half of the missed shots. In addition, they are very good at taking care of the ball, with a top 25 lowest turnover rate. Math would tell you this is one of the most direct ways to counteract a team that takes such a massive amount of threes like the Tide.
From a more tactical standpoint, I like Texas A&M's swarming halfcourt defense against Alabama. The Tide have been just average at taking care of the ball, but that won’t cut it against a team that forces turnovers at such an elite clip like A&M. Beyond that, Alabama is reliant on high-low offense in the halfcourt running those sets at one of the highest rates in the country. The problem for the Tide? A&M is elite at defending those sets, holding opponents at .48 points per possession. Alabama has too many disadvantages to overcome here.
Alabama vs Texas A&M same-game parlay
Texas A&M moneyline
Grant Nelson Under 12.5 points
+240 at bet365
We will keep with the theme of the handicap here and pair Grant Nelson under 12.5 points with our best bet of Texas A&M winning the game. Nelson is typically a good indicator of Alabama’s success, so pairing an under with the opponent to win makes sense, but beyond that, this isn’t the best spot for him.
Nelson gets points in two areas, but they are all places that A&M stifles well. One of those places is on the backboard with second-chance scores, and the other is off of the aforementioned high/low sets. This is the strength of A&M's team, so we expect tough sledding for him this evening.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Alabama vs Texas A&M odds
Alabama vs Texas A&M live odds
Alabama vs Texas A&M opening odds
- Spread: Alabama -3.5 | Texas A&M +3.5
- Moneyline: Alabama -152 | Texas A&M +126
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 | Under 160.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Alabama vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
Texas A&M has hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+4.60 Units / 12% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Texas A&M.
How to watch Alabama vs Texas A&M
| Location: | Reed Arena, College Station, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-11-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Alabama vs Texas A&M key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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