The nightcap of the 2023 Pac-12 Men’s Basketball tournament sees the No. 6 seed Arizona State Sun Devils (20-11, 11-9 in Pac-12) face the No. 11 seed Oregon State Beavers (11-20, 5-15 in Pac-12).
The Sun Devils had their best start in conference play since 1980-81 with six wins in their first seven Pac-12 games but fell flat to end the season in disappointing fashion.
Will Bobby Hurley be able to pick his team off the mat and get them ready for a tournament run?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Arizona State vs. Oregon State on Wednesday, March 8 below to find out.
Arizona State vs Oregon State best odds
Arizona State vs Oregon State picks and predictions
The Sun Devils started conference play with a 6-1 record and appeared to be one of the better teams in the conference. Fast forward to March and they’ve lost eight of their last 13 games entering the Pac-12 Tournament.
The 20-11 overall record may not indicate it, but this has been a disappointing season in Tempe. Some say it’s better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all. Fanbases may not agree that it’s better to have shown promise and then fallen flat rather than never shown promise at all.
Hurley’s squad checks in at 60th overall in KenPom — 123rd in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency. The Sun Devils struggle to get the ball in the basket offensively, ranking 315th in field goal percentage (41.8%), 329th in 3-point percentage (31.3%), and 260th in free-throw percentage (69.5%). The defense can hang its hat on the fact that it ranks 12th in opponent field goal percentage (39.4%).
Wayne Tinkle built up plenty of goodwill by leading the Beavers to their first-ever Pac-12 Tournament championship in 2021 — a surprising run for the No. 5 seed. They then went on a run in the NCAA Tournament, reaching the Elite Eight as a 12-seed.
Since that run, Oregon State holds just a 14-48 record across the last two seasons. This year’s squad doesn’t do much of anything well, ranking 215th in KenPom — 272nd in offensive efficiency and 137th in defensive efficiency.
These teams played twice this season, with Arizona State winning both matchups. The first was a 74-69 Sun Devils win in Corvallis in which second-team All-Pac-12 guard Desmond Cambridge Jr. led the way with 21 points. The second was a comfortable 68-57 win in Tempe in which Oregon State shot just 40.8% from the field.
One thing about both of those matchups is that Oregon State held a halftime lead in both. I don’t mind taking the Beavers plus the points in the first half of this matchup once lines are released, and I’ll be targeting them for the full-game spread for now.
I haven’t liked what I’ve been seeing from Arizona State over the last two months. It looks undisciplined offensively and can tend to resort to taking wild, pickup basketball-style shots. Sometimes they fall, but a lot of times they don’t. It’s not a huge mystery why this team is so inconsistent, as it lacks a cohesive game plan and identity.
While tournaments can reward teams that have a guard-centric offensive approach, I can’t put my faith in the Sun Devils to cover a double-digit spread against nearly any opponent right now. They finished just 7-13 ATS in conference play and are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
The Beavers tend to play well in neutral site games, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 such games. The series history favors them in this spot as the underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these schools. I’ll back the Beavers to keep this nightcap from becoming a blowout.
My best bet: Oregon State +10 (-110 at PointsBet)
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Arizona State vs Oregon State spread analysis
The spread opened Arizona State -9.5 but has moved to -10 across most books as of Wednesday morning.
The Sun Devils likely need at least three wins in the Pac-12 Tournament to be considered for an NCAA Tournament berth. Their bubble situation is still murky as the path certainly is not a clear one — Bracket Matrix lists the Sun Devils in just 18 of their 121 expert brackets. Joe Lunardi lists them among his first four out. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them come out tight with outsized expectations on their shoulders.
Oregon State has nothing to play for, and Tinkle seems to think it will have his team ready to peak at the right time. He told his team that they have nothing to lose, so I expect the Beavers to look loose and free on the court with no anxiety.
The Sun Devils trailed at halftime in both prior matchups and didn’t exactly run away with the game in convincing fashion either time. Desmond Cambridge Jr. went a combined 7-12 from behind the arc in those matchups, and Tinkle has mentioned it’s a priority to run him off the 3-point line for this matchup. The Sun Devils are overly reliant on Cambridge playing hero ball, so Tinkle’s squad should keep this close if they are able to execute that game plan.
Arizona State vs Oregon State Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 129 but was quickly bet up to 130.5, where it resides as of writing.
Oregon State has been an Under machine, going 19-11 to the Under overall this season. The Beavers have reversed that trend a bit to end the season, notching a 4-1 record to the Over in the last five games of the regular season. It took a while, but perhaps the books caught on and adjusted accordingly.
Arizona State is 16-15 to the Over this season including a 5-1 mark in its six neutral site games. That being said, there‘s one contradicting trend on the Sun Devils’ side: Arizona State is 28-9-1 to the Under in its last 38 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400.
The Sun Devils are slightly above-average in terms of pace, ranking 125th in adjusted tempo (KenPom). Oregon State likes to slow the ball down, checking in at 336th in adjusted tempo.
The handicap leads me to the Under a bit, but it’s a low number, and the first round of this tournament saw overs go 3-1 last season. That’s enough to keep me off a bet on the total.
Arizona State vs Oregon State betting trend to know
The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two schools. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona State vs. Oregon State.
Arizona State vs Oregon State game info
| Conference: | Pac-12 Round 1 |
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 8, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 11:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Pac-12 Network |
