Arizona State vs USC Odds, Picks and Predictions: Collier Conquers Sun Devils

Two teams looking to end the season on a high note meet at the Galen Center on Thursday night as the USC Trojans (12-17, 6-12 Pac-12) host the Arizona State Sun Devils (14-15, 8-10).

Andy Enfield’s Trojans have finally found their groove, winning three of their last five games. The two losses both came by just three points each — one in overtime to Colorado and the other on the road against Washington State. 

Bobby Hurley’s Sun Devils won the initial meeting 82-67 in Tempe but have been in free fall ever since, dropping eight of their ensuing 11 games. 

Glancing at college basketball odds, the Trojans are expected to take care of business at home as 8.5-point favorites, while the total is set at 144. 

I have my eyes set on USC’s five-star freshman phenom Isaiah Collier for Thursday night’s best bet. See which prop I’ve selected and check out my full college basketball picks and predictions for Arizona State vs. USC on Thursday, March 7.

Arizona State vs USC best odds

Arizona State vs USC picks and predictions

Andy Enfield’s USC Trojans made the NCAA Tournament in each of the last three seasons. It’s therefore been surprising to witness the sheer depth to which this program fell this season, entering with high expectations but ending in the basement of the conference standings. 

Things have turned around lately, however, as Enfield’s squad has rattled off three wins in its last five games. The two losses both came by only three points each to Top-40 teams according to the metrics (Colorado, Washington State) in games where the Trojans held significant second-half leads but ultimately came up just short. 

The revival has been sparked by the return to health of star guards Isaiah Collier and Boogie Ellis, who combine to average 33.6 points and 7.1 assists per game. They’re undeniably one of the top backcourts in the nation, and are both back to full strength after Collier dealt with a hand injury that kept him out for three weeks and Ellis struggled through a hamstring injury that limited his production for nearly a month. 

Next up are the Arizona State Sun Devils, who rank 116th overall in KenPom — 213th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 46th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Rumors are swirling regarding the job safety of head coach Bobby Hurley after his team has won just three of its last 11 games. 

One area where Arizona State has struggled defensively is protecting the paint. The Sun Devils rank 253rd in percentage of shots allowed at the rim (40.4% per Hoop-Math) and 262nd in field-goal percentage allowed on those looks (59.7%). They don’t have much usable size and have been vulnerable to opposing players who attack the rim off the dribble. 

I expound on his virtues as a basketball player every chance that I get, so allow me to once against state that Collier is one of the best players in the country. You’d be forgiven if you haven’t watched him lately — USC has been irrelevant this season from a competition standpoint and is usually only in the headlines when talking heads mention Bronny James — but Collier’s developed into a fully-formed offensive juggernaut who gets to the rim whenever and however he feels. 

The five-star freshman guard has caught fire, averaging 20.2 ppg across his last nine outings, and was named the Pac-12 Freshman of the Week for a fourth time after dropping 24 points on Washington State and 31 points on Washington. His points prop is set at 16.5 for Thursday’s contest and I’ll be betting his Over once again.

Arizona State comes to Southern California bringing a fast-paced style, ranking 79th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. A slightly pace-up game against a team with weak rim protection sounds like a great recipe for yet another productive night for USC's precocious bucket-getter. 

My best bet: Isaiah Collier Over 16.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)

Arizona State vs USC same-game parlay

Isaiah Collier Over 16.5 points

USC -8.5

Under 143.5

+484 at FanDuel

USC’s defense has played pretty well lately, ranking 67th in Barttovik’s adjusted defensive efficiency since the start of February. It’s somewhat remarkable the Trojans have been able to post respectable numbers on that end of the court despite routinely getting torched from behind the arc, ranking 337th in 3-point defense (36.8%) and 329th in 3-pointers allowed per game (8.7). 

That makes this a dream matchup because Arizona State is dreadful at shooting from range, ranking 320th in 3-point percentage (30.8%). Four different players attempt at least 4.5 triples per game, but none of them shoots above 33%. That’s a lot of shooting and missing. 

The Sun Devils are also terrible from the mid-range, sporting the 14th-worst field goal percentage on 2-point jumpers (31.7% per Hoop-Math). They prefer to get to the paint, but USC has two fearsome rim protectors in Joshua Morgan (2.3 blocks per game) and Vinve “The Prince” Iwuchukwu. The Trojans rank 11th in Haslametric’s near-proximity field goal defense vs. the average opponent and therefore set up extremely well defensively in this matchup. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arizona State vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened at USC -7 before quickly jumping out to -8.5 at the time of this writing. Track any further fluctuations using our college basketball line movement tool. 

I’m in agreement with the line move. I’ve been shouting from the rooftops about USC playing its best basketball of the season lately, and now the Trojans get their least-difficult matchup in a month, at home, against a team that is 3-8 in its last 11 games. 

The Sun Devils have not been a threat on the road for much of the season, posting a 3-6 record that includes a 45-point loss to rival Arizona, a 13-point loss to conference cellar-dweller Oregon State, and a five-point loss to San Diego. Hurley’s squad has an average margin of -12.89 ppg in away games this season. 

This sets up as a great matchup for USC on paper — the Trojans take away what the Sun Devils do best offensively (getting to the rim) and excel offensively where the Sun Devils have a weakness (defending the rim). 

Most of USC’s success at the rim offensively comes from Collier, who takes 52.9% of his shots at the rim while converting them at 63.7% (Hoop-Math). He single-handedly took over the Washington game with his sheer ability to attack off the bounce. Opposing teams know what he wants to do and they still can’t stop him, and if they dedicate extra bodies then he’s more than capable of making the right pass to an open teammate. 

If you’re playing the Over, it’s not a bet on efficiency as Arizona State’s offensive metrics are vomit-inducing — hence my lean toward the Under. This is the highest total in a game between these two teams since 2021 and they’ve combined to go 2-4 O/U in the last six meetings when the total is 140 or higher. 

Arizona State vs USC betting trend to know

Isaiah Collier has scored at least 17 points in five of his last seven games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona State vs. USC.

Arizona State vs USC game info

Arizona State vs USC key injuries

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