Arkansas vs Florida Odds, Picks and Predictions: Getting Buckets

We have a great Saturday afternoon SEC matchup featuring two high-scoring teams looking for their first conference victory when the Arkansas Razorbacks meet the Florida Gators in Gainesville. 

Arkansas has dropped two straight but has won three of its last five. Florida has also won three of their last five but has a two-game losing skid they are looking to halt at home after getting blown out Wednesday night at Mississippi.  

Please join me as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks as I preview Arkansas vs Florida on Saturday, January 13.

Arkansas vs Florida best odds

Arkansas vs Florida picks and predictions

This edition of the Florida Gators loves playing at home. They are 6-1, with their only blemish thus far being a two-point home loss to Kentucky. That could change if Florida reserve guard Riley Kugel can’t dress.

Kugel missed time in December with a foot injury. The sophomore guard played just four minutes in the Gators' Wednesday night away loss to Mississippi without explaining why he didn’t return to action or a status update for Saturday’s SEC clash. 

Welcome to college basketball handicapping and why I love it so much.

Kugel isn’t the Gators' best player, but missing their fourth-leading scorer, who does little things well, like pass the ball, rebound, and defend, can’t be a good thing. It affects their top-ranked rebounding schemes, changes how the ball moves on offense, changes their defensive schemes, and limits Florida’s depth as he’s usually the first one off the bench, and the Gators would miss his 1.5 steals per game.

With or without Kugel, this contest is ending Over 163.5 points.

Normally, that would be far too many points, but not for these two programs. Arkansas's Over/Under record is 11-4-0 to the Over, while Florida boasts an O/U mark of 11-3-1 to the Over. 

Tempo will play a huge role in this total. Arkansas plays the 72nd-fastest tempo, while Florida is the fourth-fastest playing program in D1 basketball. Both teams have had turnover issues, and we have two programs averaging a combined 12.5 swipes per game. The fast tempo and the loose care of the rock should lead to plenty of transition buckets, and both teams are exceptional in transition, according to ShotQuality.

Finally, the tempo and lack of defense will be there. Both sides are better than average shooters from inside the arc and mediocre from behind it, but each defense is below-average defending the triple. Florida is one of the best offensive-rebounding teams nationally, and second-chance points opportunities should abound. Arkansas has three Razorbacks in the SEC top 15 in blocked shots, and they typically turn those blocks into points. Saturday should be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair, so I am playing Over 163.5.

My best bet: Over 163.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Arkansas vs Florida same-game parlay

Over 163.5

Florida -6.5

+234 at FanDuel

This same-game parlay card pays $234 for a $100 stake, which correlates well.

We’ve already discussed why I like the Over 163.5 as my best bet. This game will be played at a high pace, and the possessions will be there, the turnovers turned into buckets will be there, and the Gators' offensive putbacks will be there. Both programs shoot better than average from inside the arc and just about the D1 average from behind it. 

Neither team covers the spread regularly, but Florida is slightly better at it, with a 5-9-1 ATS record overall and 3-4 against the spread at home. Meanwhile, Arkansas is 4-11-0 ATS and 0-1-0 ATS as the away side. The lack of true away games has me going with the Gators to cover. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arkansas vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis

DraftKings opened Arkansas +7.5 (-110), but the number dipped briefly to +6.5 and now sits at +7. It could dip back to +6.5 if Kugel can’t suit up or is limited. 

I don’t believe we’ll see +7.5 again, and that’s a pity because I might have played that number as my best bet and banking on Kugel missing. Caesars and DraftKings have +7 (-110), FanDuel has +6.5 but -120 juice, but it’s hard to trust a losing conference team that can’t cover the spread.

If these two programs were a blanket, we’d turn them into rags because neither of these teams has been good against the number. That’s why making a bet on the spread is so difficult and why smart bettors hammered the +7.5 as they did at DraftKings. 

The total is bouncing around a bit, and I’m glad I could lock in Over 163.5 (-110) at FanDuel. I would’ve played Over 164.5 up to -115; the -110 is welcome. The Over is as high as 164.5 (-110) at DraftKings, and we could see it rise to 165.5 or maybe even 166 points. Neither team plays much defense, and this contest exceeding the number is what will most likely happen.

The only lean I would consider making would be an in-game bet on Florida as an underdog, but I don’t ever see that happening. Florida averages 40 first-half points per matchup, and I don’t see them trailing in this game. If they do find themselves as a “live” underdog, then I will bet Florida ML live. 

Arkansas vs Florida betting trend to know

Florida has hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+10.00 Units / 28% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Florida.

Arkansas vs Florida game info

Arkansas vs Florida key injuries

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