The No. 21 ranked Mississippi Rebels head to Tuscaloosa to face the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide in NCAA basketball action on Tuesday night.
Early money has come in on the home side, moving the spread from -9.5 to -12, but my Mississippi vs. Alabama predictions go against the line movement and back the underdogs.
Here are my free college basketball picks for this SEC showdown on January 14.
Mississippi vs Alabama prediction
My best bet
Mississippi +12 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Alabama Crimson Tide are scorching, having won eight games in a row while going 6-2 against the spread during that span. That said, this spread looks a tad too high against a 14-2 Mississippi Rebels squad that has gone 10-3 ATS in its last 13 contests.
Chris Beard has the Rebels playing well on both ends of the floor. Mississippi is 31st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom while ranking 21st in adjusted defense. Nobody can stop Alabama's high-octane offense at home, but the Rebels should at least be able to slow them down.
While the Rebels don't have much size, their small and mobile lineup will be able to limit Alabama in transition. In addition, the Tide attempt threes on 48.9% of their shots — the third-highest number among high-major schools. However, they are 228th in the country in 3-point percentage (32.3%), while Mississippi is 26th in 3-point defense, holding foes to 29.3% shooting from deep.
On the other end of the court, defense has been an afterthought for the Tide, who are 285th in points per game allowed (77.4) and 336th in opponent turnover rate (14%).
The Rebels rarely turn the ball over, spread the floor, and have good ball movement. They have four players averaging double-digits in points, led by guard Sean Pedulla (14.1 ppg on 44/40/85 shooting splits), and they should be able to score enough to cover this hefty spread.
Mississippi vs Alabama same-game parlay
Mississippi +12
Malik Dia Over 10.5 points
Labaron Philon Over 4.5 assists
Malik Dia averaged 16.9 points in 23.2 minutes per game with Belmont last season. While Dia didn't see consistent minutes early this season with Mississippi, Beard has given the 6-foot-9, 250-pound forward more playing time recently in an effort to improve on the glass and in the paint.
Dia logged a season-high 28 minutes last Wednesday and scored 21 points with eight boards against Arkansas. He followed up on that with a 19-point performance in 26 minutes against LSU in the last game.
With senior guard Latrell Wrightsell done for the year with an Achilles tendon injury, Alabama guard Labaron Philon has seen his usage rate soar. The freshman has dropped five or more dimes in four of his last five games and is coming off a seven-assist performance against Texas A&M.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mississippi vs Alabama odds
Mississippi vs Alabama live odds
Mississippi vs Alabama opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi +9.5 | Alabama -9.5
- Moneyline: Mississippi +350 | Alabama -450
- Over/Under: Over 164 | Under 164
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mississippi vs Alabama betting trend to know
Mississippi is 6-1 ATS against high-major foes this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Alabama.
How to watch Mississippi vs Alabama
| Location: | Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-14-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
Mississippi vs Alabama key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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