A pair of Top-10 teams face off at the Hilton Coliseum tonight when the No. 2-ranked Iowa State Cyclones host the No. 9 Kansas Jayhawks.
The Jayhawks have been an Under machine this season, going 1-14 O/U, and my Kansas vs. Iowa State predictions are betting on that trend to continue.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Big 12 showdown on January 15.
Kansas vs Iowa State prediction
My best bet
Under 144 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This is a clash between an elite Kansas Jayhawks defense and a high-powered Iowa State Cyclones offense that averages 86.2 points per game. That said, Iowa State is excellent on the other end of the floor as well and is 10th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, just six spots behind Kansas.
Since the start of December, ISU has been 23rd in the country in opponent 2-point percentage (44.6%) and has limited potent offenses like Baylor and Marquette.
The Jayhawks are coming off a 54-40 road win against Cincinnati, which was as painful to watch as it sounds. The Jayhawks went just 2-for-21 from deep but also held the Bearcats to 31% shooting — 14% from the arc. The Under has now cashed in 13 straight Kansas games.
Over the last month, the Jayhawks have allowed just 53.0 points per game on 36.6 eFG%. However, they've also been held below 68 points in four of their last eight while ranking 247th in eFG% (49.2%) over that span.
They are also just 362nd in free-throw rate and that inability to get to the line makes it tough to score when their outside shots aren't falling, which tends to happen on the road where their eFG% plummets to 46.8%.
The Cyclones have been playing at a breakneck pace this season but played much slower last year with the same backcourt and coach. I expect their tempo to slow down in this high-intensity conference showdown, which will result in the Under cashing for Kansas again.
Kansas vs Iowa State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 144.5
Keshon Gilbert Under 4.5 assists
Iowa State ML
Keshon Gilbert leads Iowa State with 4.7 assists per game but has been held below 4.5 assists in five of his last seven. Since I'm betting on a low-scoring, slower-paced game, it makes sense to fade him in this SGP.
I'm reluctant to lay seven points on ISU since Kansas has a talented and experienced squad that is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games. That said, the Cyclones are far more efficient on offense and have won 27 straight games at home, so I'll back them on the ML instead.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kansas vs Iowa State odds
Kansas vs Iowa State live odds
Kansas vs Iowa State opening odds
- Spread: Kansas +6 | Iowa State -6
- Moneyline: Kansas +205 | Iowa State -250
- Over/Under: Over 144 | Under 144
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kansas vs Iowa State betting trend to know
The Under has cashed in 13 consecutive games for Kansas and has also gone 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these conference foes. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. Iowa State.
How to watch Kansas vs Iowa State
| Location: | Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-15-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN 2 |
Kansas vs Iowa State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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