Arkansas vs Tennessee Odds, Picks and Predictions: Elite Defenses Take Center Stage

The No. 12 Tennessee Volunteers (21-8) host the Arkansas Razorbacks (19-10) in what will be the Vols’ final home game of the regular season. 

Despite being a Top-15 team, the Volunteers still have questions to answer as we near March — typically a letdown of a month for coach Rick Barnes. 

Both teams are getting healthy in time for the postseason, and this matchup should be tightly contested between two elite defenses. 

See how it all plays out in my college basketball betting picks for Arkansas vs. Tennessee below. 

Arkansas vs Tennessee best odds

Arkansas vs Tennessee picks and predictions

For a Top-15 team, the Tennessee Volunteers have a lot of questions to answer as the calendar is one day away from March. Is a strong defense enough to make up for a lackluster offense? Can Rick Barnes conquer his postseason demons? Can the team find its groove after losing four of its last six games?

The advanced numbers are still a believer in the Vols, as they rank fourth overall in KenPom — 62nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and first in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

They momentarily righted the ship in Saturday’s 40-point blowout win over South Carolina. Fourth-year guard Josiah-Jordan James returned to the floor for the first time in four games and provided a spark with a team-high 18 points against the Gamecocks. Five-star freshman forward Julian Phillips and rotational player Tyreke Key are both considered questionable against Arkansas.

Tuesday’s night will be a battle of two Top-10 defenses. The Arkansas Razorbacks check in at 10th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric and — similarly to Tennessee — the offense lags behind at 48th in adjusted efficiency. 

Also similarly to the Vols, the Razorbacks are getting healthier at just the right time. Star recruit and freshman guard Nick Smith’s return to the lineup has been as big of an addition as any in the country.

He’s fully healthy, as evidenced by the 40 minutes he played on the road in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. His ability as a high-level scorer is just what this team needed and that’s been undeniable after he’s dropped 50 points in his last two games combined. 

Tuesday night’s meeting at Thompson-Boiling Arena might resemble a rock fight more than a basketball game. Tennessee will look to impose its dominant physicality in what will be its last home game of the season, and Arkansas is plenty tough itself. 

The Vols play at a very slow pace, checking in at 270th in adjusted tempo (KenPom). Despite playing in a Rick Barnes system that typically finds easy shots, this year’s team simply hasn’t been able to knock down those looks at a high rate. The Vols rank 264th in field goal shooting (43.2%), 277th in 3-point shooting (32.5%), and lack high-level shotmakers. 

Arkansas has been playing with more tempo lately since Smith’s return to the court, but the Hogs face a tough challenge against a Vols defense surrendering just 56.7 points per game. Tennessee ranks second in field goal defense (35.9%) and first in 3-point defense (24.7%). 

The Under is 9-1 in the Vols’ last 10 games against a team with a winning record and I’ll bet on that trend to continue Tuesday night. 

My best bet: Under 134.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

Arkansas vs Tennessee spread analysis

After opening at Tennessee -7.5, the line currently sits at -6.5 across the board.

Tennessee is 15-14 against the spread this season. After starting strong, the Vols have hit a rough patch to end the regular season with a 2-6 ATS mark across their last eight games. 

That being said, Barnes’ squad has been very strong at home. They have a 13-2 straight-up record at Thompson-Boiling Arena and are 10-5 ATS. 

Arkansas is 15-13-1 ATS on the year. There have been many ebbs and flows to this season, as injuries to players like Nick Smith and Trevon Brazile have left this team short-handed at times. 

The Hogs have found a groove lately, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. The Razorbacks’ offense has come to life, averaging a robust 88 points across its last three games. This resurgence has coincided with Smith’s return to the fold. 

This will be a tough road test for a team that has struggled away from Fayetteville, going 2-7 in true road games. 

The trends support Tennessee, but Arkansas is in much better form. Getting a full 6.5 points in what should be a tight, defensive affair has me leaning toward the underdog.

Arkansas vs Tennessee Over/Under analysis

The total currently resides between 134 and 134.5 depending on the book. I fancy the Under, and I’d play it down to 132.5 

For a team that is supposed to be among the nation’s best, Tennessee sure does have a clear weakness — the offense. The Volunteers have failed to crack more than 70 points in six of their last eight games.  They lack high-level shooters, don’t have a go-to post presence, and play at a slow tempo — it’s no surprise why buckets have been hard to come by. 

Both teams are an identical 16-12-1 to the Under this season. Arkansas likes to get inside the paint when it has the ball, checking in at 12th nationally in shooting proximity (Haslametrics). The Hogs convert the 10th-most 2-point shots per game (22.6) and do so at a high rate (54.5%). 

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Tennessee is elite at defending the paint, ranking fourth in 2-point shots allowed per game (13.4) and ninth in 2-point defense (43.8%). 

I’m expecting a low-scoring rock fight as both teams feature an elite defense and Tennessee will look to control the tempo in its final home game of the regular season. 

Arkansas vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Under is 9-1 in Tennessee's last 10 games against winning teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Tennessee.

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