The Auburn Tigers seek a 12th-straight win while staying perfect in SEC play when they visit the Alabama Crimson Tide Wednesday night in Tuscaloosa.
Auburn, ranked eighth in the nation, is coming off a demolition of the 22nd-ranked Ole Miss Rebels, keeping alive a very impressive streak of double-digit margin of victory in all 16 of their wins this season.
Yet they’re currently 2.5-point road underdogs in the college basketball odds, to an Alabama side trying to rebound from their first conference loss of the year after a 20-point drubbing by Tennessee.
Can the Tide’s high-octane offense derail their rival? Find out below as I offer my free college basketball picks for Auburn vs Alabama on Wednesday, January 24.
Auburn vs Alabama best odds
Auburn vs Alabama picks and predictions
There aren’t many teams that have been able to keep pace with the Auburn Tigers, but the Alabama Crimson Tide might be one of them.
They sport the fourth-highest scoring offense in college hoops, putting up 89.2 points per game
As a team, they shoot 48.8% from the field (23rd), and are dynamite from distance, with their 11.3 3-point makes per game the fifth-best mark in the NCAA, while shooting it at a deft 38.9% (16th).
However, they were shackled up by the Tennessee Volunteers last time out, a 91-71 loss that dropped them from the ranks of the conference unbeatens with the Tigers.
Turnovers were the story in that loss, as ‘Bama coughed it up 22 times, which Tennessee converted into 23 points. That, and a brutal 4-for-19 rate from downtown were too much to overcome.
Auburn, meanwhile, smashed Ole Miss 82-59, the ninth time in 10 games they’ve hit the 80-point plateau.
On the year, the Tigers are scoring 83.7 points per game, good for 21st in the nation. They shoot it at a good rate (47.3% - 60th) but are just slightly above average in 3-point shooting, hitting at 33.9%.
Auburn offsets those so-so shooting splits with an aggressive style that lands them at the stripe. They’re taking 23.4 free throws per game (29th), and their 17.8 makes per game rank 15th.
The Tigers should know ‘Bama is for real: the Crimson Tide are a crisp 8-1 at home this season, and they have won the last two head-to-head matchups, including four of the last six.
I’m expecting a ton of up-and-down play on Wednesday night.
Auburn ranks 76th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, with Alabama sitting inside the Top 25.
The over has hit in three of the last four matchups, and while I think an upset is worth betting, the total seems like the more solid win.
My best bet: Over 165.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Auburn vs Alabama same-game parlay
Over 165.5 points
Mark Sears Over 1.5 threes made
Johni Broome Under 15.5 points
Alabama senior guard Mark Sears is coming in hot, leading the team in scoring four of the past five games, including 22 in that loss to Tennessee.
We’re getting him at a very reasonable 1.5 3-point makes, because Sears has hit just a single triple in each of the last two games.
Before that, he had at least two 3-point makes in each of the last four contests, shooting an impressive 14-for-23 from distance, a 60.9% clip.
Last season, he cleared that make line in both games against the Tigers. He should have ample opportunities to hit that number again Wednesday.
Enough about ‘Bama’s leading scorer, and onto Auburn’s leading point man. Johni Broome, the 6-foot-10 forward, is averaging 15.3 points and 8.4 rebounds for the Tigers while shooting a crisp 54.7% from the field.
However, his scoring has taken a slight dip in SEC play, as he’s topped 15.5 points just once in his last five.
Broome took just nine shots and finished with 13 points against Ole Miss and had 15 with 12 boards vs Vanderbilt.
His lone Over was when he scored 18 against LSU but prior to that, Broome had 10 against Texas A&M and 14 against Arkansas.
In two games against ‘Bama last year, he had 10 points in a March 1 90-85 OT loss, and that followed the eight he scored in a 77-69 loss on February 11.
He should be near the number, but I'm banking he comes up just short.
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Auburn vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread has been as high as three points, but you can move down the line to as low as 1.5 points.
Auburn has been a solid pick against the spread, running a 12-5-1 mark so far this season. They’ve also covered in five straight games and three of the last four vs Alabama.
The Crimson Tide has covered three of their last four and owns a 10-8-0 record ATS.
Books are banking on a track meet, setting the total as high as 168.5 points, and nothing has been posted lower than 164.5.
Alabama has hit the Over in three straight, and they’ve crossed the total 13 times in 18 games. The total has been set at 160 or higher five times in the last 10 games.
The Tigers have seen the Over hit in just seven of their 18 starts, and the Under has hit in four of their last five games.
Auburn vs Alabama betting trend to know
Alabama has not lost at home since Nov 28, winning five straight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Auburn vs. Alabama.
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Auburn vs Alabama game info
| Location: | Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 24, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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