Baylor vs Duke Odds, Picks and Predictions: Barely Devilish

The Baylor Bears will try to bounce back from their first loss of the year when they take on the Duke Blue Devils tonight at Madison Square Garden in New York.

Baylor (9-1) has a better record and is ranked higher than Duke (7-3) this year. However, the college basketball odds have the Blue Devils as the favorite after the Bears suffered a stunning 88-64 defeat to the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday.

Baylor looked horrible in the first half on Saturday, but how much does that mean for its future results? We’ll take a closer look at the Bears and the Blue Devils in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Baylor vs. Duke on December 20.

Baylor vs Duke best odds

Baylor vs Duke picks and predictions

In the first half against Michigan State, Baylor scored just 17 points and was down by 28 at the half. It was a horrific performance from a team that had barely been challenged in its first nine games this season. The result was all the more surprising against a Spartans team that was just 4-5 heading into Saturday’s game.

One thing every bettor has to learn is to ignore small sample sizes. Sure, Baylor looked awful for 20 minutes, but they’ve otherwise been outstanding this year. KenPom rates Baylor as the No. 4 team in the country in terms of adjusted offense, and that’s even including that anemic display against the Spartans.

The Bears are scoring 88.4 points per game, and are doing so with efficiency rather than by running the court. Baylor is second in the country in three-point percentage at 42.1% and is shooting 51.7% overall from the field. Six Baylor players are scoring in double digits, led by freshman guard Ja’Kobe Walter at 14.3 points per game.

Duke has had its own recent struggles. The Blue Devils dropped back-to-back road games against the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets before bouncing back with two home wins against weaker non-conference opponents last week. Much like Baylor, I wouldn’t put too much stock in Duke’s two losses, though it shows a bit more weakness than one half of cold shooting.

The Blue Devils rely heavily on star center Kyle Filipowski, who is averaging 18.4 points and 9.2 rebounds in his sophomore season. In many matchups, his post presence is enough to tilt the scales in favor of Duke. When it’s not, the Blue Devils also have enough depth with the likes of Jeremy Roach (14.8 ppg) and Mark Mitchell (11.4 ppg), allowing them to score from any spot on the court.

While Filipowski will have an edge tonight, Baylor isn’t helpless in the post. Freshman center Yves Missi is enjoying a strong first season for the Bears, becoming an efficient scorer who is shooting 64.4% from the field. The Cameroonian has also been excellent on defense, blocking two shots per game, and at 7 feet and 235 pounds, he has the size to contend physically with Filipowski.

Regardless of what we’ve seen so far, both of these teams are excellent, particularly on the offensive end. But I like what I’ve seen from Baylor a bit more overall this year, one bad half aside. On a neutral court, this is close to a tossup game, yet the Bears are a small underdog. I think Baylor should be a small favorite if anything here, so I’m taking the Bears on the moneyline with a plus number tonight.

My best bet: Baylor ML (+136 at DraftKings) No-sweat promo available

Baylor vs Duke same-game parlay

Baylor moneyline

Over 153.5

Ja'Kobe Walter 12+ points

+495 at DraftKings

For my same-game parlay tonight, we’ll start by taking Baylor to win the game outright. I’m going to combine that with a bet on the Over at 153.5 points. These are two of the top 10 offensive teams in the country, and each has shown it can put up 90+ points on any given night. I expect a shootout, so the Over is the smart play.

I’m also picking Walter to score at least 12 points tonight on an alternate scoring prop total. Walter has hit this total in five of his first 10 games and should get more opportunities as Baylor looks to move its offense away from Filipowski on the inside.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Baylor vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis

Duke opened tonight’s game as a one-point favorite. The public money has been on the Blue Devils, and most books are now offering lines between Duke -2.5 and Duke -3.5, depending on where you choose to bet the game.

Baylor has been excellent against the spread this year, posting a 6-2-1 ATS mark on the year. Meanwhile, Duke has compiled a 5-5 ATS record this season.

I’ve picked Baylor to win this game outright, as I think these teams are very evenly matched and there’s a lot of value on the moneyline. However, I think the spread is also an excellent option, especially if you can get the full 3.5 points. This is a true tossup game, and getting some points with the Bears will protect you if this turns into a one-possession game down the stretch.

The total for this game opened at 155 points. Most books have since dropped the Over/Under to 153.5. You can find -110 odds on both sides of the market at that number.

Baylor has played above the total this year, with the Over putting up a 6-3 mark when the Bears play. Duke has been more neutral this season, going 5-5 on each side of the Over/Under.

As I pointed out earlier, these are two of the best and most efficient offensive teams in the country. At the same time, while both are good on defense, they aren’t elite in that regard, and each team plays at a reasonable pace. With both teams averaging well above 80 points per game this season, I’m leaning toward the Over.

Baylor vs Duke betting trend to know

Baylor is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Duke.

Baylor vs Duke game info

Baylor vs Duke key injuries

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