The No. 15-ranked Missouri Tigers head to Knoxville to take on the No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers in NCAA basketball action on Wednesday night.
The Vols have been dominating foes at home, which is why my Missouri vs. Tennessee predictions expect them to cool off a red-hot Mizzou squad.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this SEC showdown on February 5.
Missouri vs Tennessee prediction
My best bet
Tennessee -8.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Early money has come in on the Missouri Tigers, who are 6-1 straight-up and against the spread in their last seven games. That has shortened the spread from -9.5 to -8.5 for the Tennessee Volunteers.
The Volunteers started off the season 14-0 SU and 9-4-1 ATS but have gone 4-4 SU and ATS since. That said, three of those defeats came on the road. Tennessee is 12-1 at home, with all of those victories coming by double digits.
The Tigers are 14th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom but the Vols have the highest rated defense and have proven they can shut down highly-rated attacks. They are coming off a game where they held Florida (fifth in adjusted offense) to 44 points, and two weeks ago they limited Auburn (first in adjusted offense) to 53 points on 31% shooting.
Missouri's offense has relied on two things: their 3-point shooting (37.9%) and their ability to get to the line (highest free-throw rate in SEC play). However, their 3-point percentage drops to 32.9% away from home and it's always harder to get calls on the road. Meanwhile, Tennessee has the lowest opponent FT rate in the conference and leads the country in 3-point defense (26%).
If the Vols can close down Missouri's perimeter shooters and limit trips to the charity stripe, they should be able to pull away here. Especially since they shoot a sizzling 58.3% from inside the arc at home while Mizzou ranks 10th in the conference in 2-point defense (50.8%).
Missouri vs Tennessee same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee -8.5
Jordan Gainey Under 10.5 points
Felix Okpara Over 6.5 rebounds
Guard Jordan Gainey is coming off a game where he dropped 16 points on 5-for-13 shooting against Florida. That said, he logged a season-high 37 minutes in that game since point guard Zakai Zeigler was sidelined by a knee injury. Zeigler will be back tonight, which means fewer minutes and shots for Gainey, who has scored fewer than 10.5 points in eight of his last 11 games.
Felix Okpara has eclipsed 6.5 rebounds in seven of his last eight games and he'll have a size advantage against a smaller Mizzou frontcourt.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Missouri vs Tennessee odds
Missouri vs Tennessee live odds
Missouri vs Tennessee opening odds
- Spread: Missouri +9.5 | Tennessee -9.5
- Moneyline: Missouri +325 | Tennessee -425
- Over/Under: Over 134.5 | Under 134.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Missouri vs Tennessee betting trend to know
The Volunteers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games at home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Missouri vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Missouri vs Tennessee
| Location | Food City Center, Knoxville, TN |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Missouri vs Tennessee key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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