Kentucky looks to recover from a stunning defeat and get back above .500 in SEC play when the Wildcats travel to Oxford to face the Mississippi Rebels tonight.
The Wildcats fell at home to a struggling Arkansas team, and are yet again without their starting point guard. Meanwhile, the Rebels have lost four of their last five games, but all were against ranked opponents, with two of those losses coming by just a single possession.
My Kentucky vs. Mississippi predictions break down why I like the home team to get right in our college basketball picks for Tuesday, February 4.
Kentucky vs Mississippi prediction
My best bet
Mississippi -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Since the calendar flipped to 2025, Kentucky has the most efficient offense in college basketball. The Wildcats are shooting 37.7% from beyond the arc, take care of the basketball, and rank Top 20 in eFG% on the season.
The problem for the Wildcats, as Arkansas further exposed this weekend, is that they can’t stop anybody on defense. While they rank 102nd on the season in ADJOE, that number sits in the 160s so far in 2025.
And the Hogs, who came into their game shooting below 45% from the field and under 25% from downtown in SEC play, got open looks at the basket all game while knocking down 13 of 24 long-range efforts.
A big reason for the drop off of late is the absence of Lamont Butler, who has been dealing with injury and once again will be out against Mississippi. His on-ball defense is terrific, and without him, the Wildcats can’t keep guards from penetrating into the lane and causing problems.
Rebels' stars Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray are poised to capitalize on those frailties. Mississippi ranks second in turnover rate on offense and tends to maximize its chances at the offensive end. While the Rebels have struggled at times against good defenses — such as Auburn — they’re perfectly set up to punish the Cats.
The other problem for Kentucky of late has been turnovers when pressured. Without Butler’s ball handling, the Wildcats have been relying on Amari Williams to be a point forward. It hasn't worked well in crunch time though, as the Wildcats have been committing costly turnovers in key situations.
Mississippi ranks 12th in defensive turnover rate and 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Rebels do a good job of forcing teams into late shot-clock situations, and if Kentucky can’t consistently find points at that, end things could get out of hand.
I can’t trust the Wildcats on the road against a team with speedy, dynamic guards and a stingy defense on the perimeter. I’ll take the Rebels to win this one and cover the spread.
Kentucky vs Mississippi same-game parlay (SGP)
Mississippi -4.5
Jaxson Robinson Over 2.5 threes
Sean Pedulla Over 2.5 threes
Both of these defenses allow some of the highest rates of 3-point attempts in college basketball, with opponents shooting from beyond the arc at least 44.4% of the time.
Jaxson Robinson has been the primary shooter of late for Kentucky, and he’s made at least three treys in six consecutive games. He converts at nearly 10 percentage points higher from downtown on the road than he does at Rupp Arena, and he’s good value to get at least three here.
On the flip side, Pedulla is a volume shooter who has attempted 38 threes over his last five games. He’s connected on at least three efforts in four of his last five games and should punish a Kentucky defense that allowed four different Razorback players to hit on multiple outside shots.
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Kentucky vs Mississippi odds
Kentucky vs Mississippi live odds
Kentucky vs Mississippi opening odds
- Spread: Kentucky +3 (-105) | Mississippi -3 (-115)
- Moneyline: Kentucky +140 | Mississippi -165
- Over/Under: Over 157 (-110) | Under 157 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kentucky vs Mississippi betting trend to know
The Rebels have hit the team total Under in 12 of their last 19 home games (+3.90 Units / 18% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Mississippi.
How to watch Kentucky vs Mississippi
| Location | The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss, Oxford, MS |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Kentucky vs Mississippi key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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