The No. 13 ranked Baylor Bears take on the No. 22 Saint John's Red Storm in the Baha Mars Hoop Championship in Bahamas tonight.
This will be the Johnny's first real test of the season, which is why I'm backing the Bears in my Baylor vs. Saint John's predictions for November 21.
Baylor vs St. John’s prediction
My best bet
Baylor -3 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Baylor Bears opened their season with an ugly 101-63 loss on the road against Gonzaga. However, they bounced back with a 72-67 victory against Arkansas before dropping 104 points in back-to-back lopsided wins against Tarleton State and Sam Houston State.
The Bears had an outlier shooting performance vs. the Zags, going just 3-for-21 from deep and 1 of 11 from mid-range. However, they were creating open shots and were expected to finish with 80 points per ShotQualityBets.
Positive regression has since hit, with Baylor now fourth in the country in adjusted shot quality, 10th in 3-point efficiency, and first in pick-and-roll efficiency, according to ShotQualityBets: One of the reasons I'm going with the Bears in my college basketball picks.
Forward Norchad Omier was a second-team All-ACC selection at Miami last season, while PG Jeremy Roach was a third-team selection with Duke. Scott Drew added V.J. Edgecombe, who was the No. 5 recruit in the nation per 247 Sports, and Robert Wright III, who was the highest-rated PG. This offense will only get better as it builds chemistry with all these new faces.
The Saint John's Red Storm are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread to begin the season, and they're fresh off an 85-71 win against New Mexico.
However, they're 202nd in strength of schedule rank according to ESPN while the Bears are 33rd. This will be their first game away from home, while the Bears have already been tested by trips to Spokane and a neutral-site clash with Arkansas.
The Johnnies have four new starters, and Rick Pitino's squad will have hiccups early in the season despite the talent. Taking care of the ball could be an issue since they sit outside the Top 200 in turnover rate (15.9%).
St. John's turned the ball over 15 times against the Lobos and now faces a Baylor squad that generates pressure and is 25th in the country in opponent TO rate (23.4%).
Baylor vs St. John’s same-game parlay
Baylor -3
Under 152.5
V.J. Edgecombe Over 5.5 rebounds
The O/U might be a tad too high at 152.5 since Bart Torvik is projecting 147 points for this clash, while KenPom has the total at 151. The Johnnies have been a tough defensive team under Pitino and rank 20th in the country in adjusted defense. Meanwhile, the Bears are playing at a much slower pace than in recent years and are 272nd in adjusted tempo per KenPom.
V.J. Edgecombe's scoring has been inconsistent but he's filling up the stat sheet in other categories. Edgecombe finished with five rebounds in his last game but logged just 24 minutes in a blowout win.
He averaged 8.3 rebounds and 31.3 minutes per game in his first three contests and has been attacking the boards on offense while the Johnnies struggled on the defensive glass vs. New Mexico.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Baylor vs St. John’s odds
Baylor vs St. John’s live odds
Baylor vs St. John’s opening odds
- Spread: Baylor -2.5 (-110) | St. John’s +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Baylor -140 | St. John’s +120
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Baylor vs St. John’s betting trend to know
Baylor is 19-6-2 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. St. John’s.
How to watch Baylor vs St. John’s
| Location: | Baha Mar Convention Center, Nassau, BS |
| Date: | Thursday, 11-21-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
Baylor vs St. John’s key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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