The No. 13 ranked Baylor Bears take on the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers in the Baha Mars Hoop Championship tonight.
The Vols made light work of Virginia last night and my Baylor vs Tennessee predictions are betting on them to cruise to victory again. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this marquee matchup in Nassau on Friday, November 22.
Baylor vs Tennessee prediction
My best bet
Tennessee -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Baylor Bears beat Saint John's 99-98 in a double-overtime thriller yesterday. The Bears trailed by as many as 18 points but caught fire from deep in the second half to push the game into OT, where Jeremy Roach drained a game-winning three at the buzzer.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee Volunteers suffocated Virginia in a 64-42 defensive master class. The Vols came into that game shooting the ball extremely well, and while their offense sputtered against Virginia's stingy defense, they'll have a much easier time against a Baylor squad that ranks 319th in the country in opponent EFG% (56.4%).
The Bears were torched by the Johnnies and they surrendered 101 points to Gonzaga in their season opener. Baylor doesn't have a rim protector and allows opponents to shoot 40.2% from deep, while the Vols shoot 40.2% from the arc and are 24th in the country in attacking the rim efficiency per ShotQualityBets.
On the other side of the floor, the Vols once again look like an elite defensive team under Rick Barnes. They are 14th in the country in opponent 2-point percentage (39.9%) and 27th in defensive rebounding rate (79.5%) while holding foes to 27.9 3PT%. With Tennessee's ability to lock down the perimeter and control the boards, Baylor won't have its usual success at the arc or get second chances on the offensive glass.
Tennessee has the defensive intensity to slow down Baylor's high-powered attack, while the Vols have good enough shooting to exploit the holes in the Bears' defense. When you also factor in the tired legs that Baylor could have the day after playing in double OT, the Vols are the side.
Baylor vs Tennessee same-game parlay
Tennessee -4.5
Zakai Zeigler 7+ assists
Chaz Lanier Over 16.5 points
Since I'm expecting Baylor's defensive cracks to be exposed tonight, it makes sense to also back a couple of Vols on their player props.
Senior point guard Zakai Zeigler is the straw that stirs the drink for Tennessee. He had six assists against an extremely slow-paced UVA squad last night and dropped 7+ dimes in his first four games this season.
The Vols said goodbye to All-American Dalton Knecht in the offseason but replaced him with transfer guard Chaz Lanier. Lanier was second in the Atlantic-Sun conference with 19.7 points per game last year and led the Vols with 26 points on 10-for-23 shooting on Thursday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Baylor vs Tennessee odds
Baylor vs Tennessee live odds
Baylor vs Tennessee opening odds
- Spread: Baylor +4.5 | Tennessee -4.5
- Moneyline: Baylor +165 | Tennessee -200
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 | Under 143.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Baylor vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Since the start of the 2021-22 season, the Vols are 53-39-1 ATS (57.6%) as favorites while Baylor is 7-12 ATS (36.8%) as an underdog. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Baylor vs Tennessee
| Location: | Baha Mar Convention Center, Nassau, BS |
| Date: | Friday, 11-22-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
Baylor vs Tennessee key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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