While neither the Baylor Bears nor the Texas Tech Red Raiders are up-tempo teams, both are driven more by their offenses than their defenses.
Perhaps that leads to a plodding game tonight in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals, but more likely, two efficient offenses will exceed bookmakers’ expectations.
My Baylor vs. Texas Tech predictions ultimately expect an Over in Kansas City tonight. Read more in my college basketball picks for Thursday, March 13.
Who will win Baylor vs Texas Tech?
Texas Tech is not unimpeachable. The Red Raiders lost outright three times as favorites in Big 12 play, most recently to TCU as seven-point favorites on Feb. 18. However, losing on the road in conference play is forgivable.
It would be a bit more unexpected to lose as a three-bucket favorite in the conference tournament, especially with a distinct rest advantage.
Furthermore, Baylor has sprung exactly zero upsets this season, going a shocking 0-7-3 against the spread in 10 games as an underdog.
Baylor vs Texas Tech prediction
My best bet: Over 141.0 (-110 at bet365)
It is tempting to bet on Texas Tech at -6.5 (-110 at bet365), simply because Baylor has disappointed this season as an underdog. Failing to cover a single spread out of 10 chances is absurd.
But caution insists on looking elsewhere, recognizing that tournament play could lead to last-minute nonsense buckets that get the final score within two buckets. In this case, the Red Raiders’ moneyline of -290 is simply too rich for my blood.
When staring at these two teams’ profiles, what stands out most is Texas Tech’s three-point distributions, both offensively and defensively. The Red Raiders rank No. 1 in the Big 12 in both 3-point percentage against (29.6%) and frequency of 3-pointers attempted against, with only 33.2% of opposing shots coming from beyond the arc.
However, Baylor does not depend on the three, sitting in the middle of the conference in both regards. The Bears are more intent on crashing the boards, collecting more than a third of available offensive rebounds in Big 12 competition. Texas Tech will limit that as well, but just a few second-chance points for Baylor will help this Over’s cause.
On offense, the Red Raiders chuck 3-pointers on nearly half their field-goal attempts, making 36.6% of them, No. 3 in the Big 12. Grant McCasland has very much leaned into an NBA offense’s shot profile.
The Bears will be only middling in limiting those looks, No. 7 in opposing 3-pointers attempted rate. More notably, conference opponents made 34.0% of their 3-pointers against Baylor, the fifth-highest rate in the Big 12.
Texas Tech has the shooters to live beyond the arc, while Baylor’s defense fails to close out on those looks. Combine that with a few Bears’ offensive rebounds, and this Over should be assured.
Baylor vs Texas Tech same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 141.0
Texas Tech -6.5
VJ Edgecombe Under 1.5 threes
This becomes a simple math problem. If Texas Tech is finding success three points at a time while Baylor is depending on offensive rebounds and putbacks, then covering a spread of -6.5 will require trading threes for twos only seven times. The Red Raiders will do so many more than seven times.
Part of that logic stems from Baylor’s best player being increasingly hesitant from deep. VJ Edgecombe did not play against Texas Tech’s perimeter-limiting defense on Feb. 4, but since then, he has cleared this prop in just three of 10 games, despite shooting 39.1% from deep in conference play.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Baylor vs Texas Tech odds
Baylor vs Texas Tech live odds
Baylor vs Texas Tech opening odds
- Spread: Baylor +6.0 | Texas Tech -6.0
- Moneyline: Baylor +210 | Texas Tech -260
- Over/Under: Over 141 | Under 141
Odds courtesy of bet365
Baylor vs Texas Tech betting trend to know
Baylor did not just go 0-7-3 ATS as an underdog this season; the Bears fell short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 6.75 points in those 10 games, including the three pushes. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Texas Tech.
How to watch Baylor vs Texas Tech
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Baylor vs Texas Tech key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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