Boston College vs Virginia Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Eagles Exploit Cavs' Weakness in Paint

The Boston College Eagles have turned one side of the ACC Tournament bracket upside down with their upset win over the Clemson Tigers. That sends BC to the quarterfinals to face the Virginia Cavaliers tonight, with the college basketball odds installing Boston College as a 4.5-point underdog.

The Eagles haven’t played like a No. 11 seed in the conference tournament odds, cruising through Miami in the opening round and stunning the NCAA-bound Tigers in a 21-point squash on Wednesday, winning outright as 7.5-point underdogs in D.C.

Virginia earned a direct trip to the quarterfinals as the No. 3 seed in the tournament. The Cavaliers edged the Eagles recently, taking a 72-68 road victory as 1-point faves at the end of February. 

I dissect the spread and Over/Under total for this 9:30 p.m. ET tipoff and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Boston College vs. Virginia on Thursday, March 14.

Boston College vs Virginia best odds

Boston College vs Virginia picks and predictions

The Boston College Eagles’ improbable run to the ACC tournament quarterfinals and any further progress has everything to do with standout center Quinten Post.

Boston College’s big man in the middle was a force in the tourney opener, hanging 30 points on Miami. He settled for just 11 points against rival P.J. Hall and Clemson but played only 24 minutes and wasn’t needed to score as BC’s other standouts took over in that blowout win.

Against the Virginia Cavaliers defense, however, the Eagles will be reliant on working the ball through the 7-footer and setting up high-percentage looks at the rim. Post put up 24 points against Virginia on Feb. 28, shooting 6-for-14 but getting to the foul line to make 11 of 11 freebies.

The Cavaliers have been susceptible to scoring centers in recent games. Bigs like Georgia Tech’s Baye Ndongo (21 points), Duke’s Kyle Filipowski (21), Clemson’s P.J. Hall (19), and BC’s Post have all bullied UVA inside. 

Post has been on a run since February, averaging 17.8 points in his last dozen games overall. His player prop markets have his scoring total parked at 14.5 points O/U against Virginia, which is a shorter number than his last two outings — reflecting the Cavs’ defense but is also skewed a bit by his 11-point effort against the Tigers.

Most books have the Over 14.5 points from Post juiced heavily, sitting as hefty as -133. But line shopping brings us to FanDuel, which lists the Over 14.5 at -115. 

Post has produced 15 or more points in eight of his last 12 outings and with this potentially being the final college game of his career, he’ll go after UVA as Boston College pushes to keep its season alive.

My best bet: Quinten Post Over 14.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Boston College vs Virginia same-game parlay

Quinten Post Over 14.5 points

Boston College team total Over 60.5

Boston College +4.5

+265 at FanDuel

Post is averaging almost 18 points over his last dozen games, scored 24 versus UVA this season, and got to rest up with only 24 minutes in Round 2.

The Eagles offense has played well in the last four games and they managed to crack UVA for 68 points in their lone meeting this season.

Game models call for a Virginia win but most forecasts range from a win between 1 and 3 points for the Cavs. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Boston College vs Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis

Following Boston College’s dominance of Clemson in the final game of Round 2, bookies opened the Eagles as 4.5-point neutral-court underdogs. That spread has bounced between UVA -4.5 and -5 with Covers Consensus showing a slight 51% lean toward BC and the points.

This will be the Eagles’ third game in three days, but head coach Earl Grant has benefited from one-sided wins, allowing him to rest his key players in the second halves of those blowouts. Most notably, Post played just 24 minutes last night after logging 36 minutes against Miami.

Boston College’s stellar efforts the past two days have extended its winning streak to four games, going back to the regular season, with BC covering the spread in each of those outings. That’s a notable pivot for a team that was 4-10-1 ATS in the 15 games before this run.

Virginia backs into the postseason not playing its best ball. The Cavaliers had only three wins in their final seven games of the regular season, including that four-point victory at Boston College and finishing the season going 2-5 ATS in that home stretch.

The blueprint of Tony Bennett’s teams remains the same: methodical pace on offense, smothering defense. But this year’s UVA squad just hasn’t been able to get over the hump against top-tier teams and finds itself on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Another win over BC won’t help matters.

Thursday’s total hit the board at 125 points and has dipped to 124.5 at some books. According to Covers Consensus, 61% of early picks are siding with the Under.

The Eagles have gone Under the total in four straight including those two ACC tournament wins, limiting Miami to 65 points and Clemson to just 55. Boston College did play Over the closing total of 126 points in its home loss to UVA.

The Cavaliers are 6-5 Over/Under in their last 11 games, as bookies drop their game totals into the 120’s. Virginia is 13-18 Over/Under on the season, including a 7-7 O/U mark in road/neutral games.

Boston College vs Virginia betting trend to know

Boston College has gone Over its team total in 21 of its last 33 games (+7.10 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Boston College vs. Virginia.

Boston College vs Virginia game info

Boston College vs Virginia key injuries

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