BYU vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Cougars Can't Keep Up With Bears

It’s well known that the Big 12 is a great basketball conference. It’s gotten even better with the addition of the No. 18 BYU Cougars (12-2, 0-1 Big 12), who have run roughshod over their early-season opponents. 

It’s to be determined if that success will continue in the gauntlet that is conference play, and a 71-60 defeat to Cincinnati to kick things off certainly didn’t inspire confidence. 

There’s no reprieve as a trip to Waco is next up on Tuesday night, where Scott Drew and the No. 14 Baylor Bears (12-2, 1-0) await at the brand-new Foster Pavilion.

Looking at the college basketball odds, the Bears are listed at -3 while the total has been set at 154.5 for this ranked-on-ranked matchup.

Check out our free college basketball picks and predictions for BYU vs. Baylor on Tuesday, January 9.

BYU vs Baylor best odds

BYU vs Baylor picks and predictions

Mark Pope’s BYU Cougars have mostly gotten attention for their eye-popping numbers on offense, averaging a superb 88.2 points per game. It may surprise the casual observer to learn that the Cougars actually rank higher in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency (sixth) than they do in offensive efficiency (19th). Suffice it to say that they have impressed on both sides of the ball in what’s been a dominant run through non-conference opponents. 

The Cougars aren’t shy about their identity offensively, letting 3-pointers fly with regularity. They attempt the second-most shots from downtown per game (34.6) and lead the nation in makes (12.9). Of five players averaging double digits, the Top 3 all average at least 2.2 made 3-pointers per game — Jaxson Robinson, Trevin Knell, and Noah Waterman.

All eyes will be on BYU to see if this success carries over to its first time experiencing the gauntlet that is Big 12 conference play. We have one data point thus far, and the Cougars underwhelmed in a 71-60 upset loss at home against Cincinnati in a game where Pope’s squad made just 13 of their 46 3-point attempts (28.3%). 

Next up is a trip to Waco to face the Baylor Bears, who have won three straight games entering this week. That includes a 75-70 win in Stillwater over Oklahoma State.

Scott Drew’s squad has a dangerous scorer in freshman Ja’Kobe Walter (15.3 ppg) leading the way, while three others average double-figures in RayJ Dennis (14.2), Langston Love (11), and Yves Missi (10.8). The Bears check into this contest ranked 14th overall in KenPom — fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency but just 70th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

This is a curious handicap in that this will be Baylor’s first Big 12 home game at the brand-new $212 million Foster Pavilion. The Bears made a triumphant 98-79 opening over Cornell on January 2, and I expect this to be a raucous environment that very much favors the home team. Combine that with the fact that this is BYU’s first-ever Big 12 road game, and this situational spot really favors the Bears. 

BYU’s metrics are puffed up after blowing out a bunch of poor opponents in the non-conference portion of the schedule. This is still a quality team, but I’ll need to see it before I believe it in regards to being able to go win on the road in a tough environment in Big 12 play. 

The Cougars attempt a high-volume of 3-pointers and that naturally lends a lot of volatility into their game-to-game performances, but I’m betting that they don’t go nuclear here in a very difficult environment.

Give me the home favorite. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more movement throughout the day considering the early volatility, but this is a spot where I want the home team up to -3.5. 

My best bet: Baylor -3 (-110 at Caesars)

BYU vs Baylor same-game parlay

Baylor -3.5

Over 154.5

+226 at FanDuel

Here’s a two-leg SGP featuring my best bet on Baylor against the spread combined with the Over 154.5. 

Both teams are elite offensively and average 88 points per game, so it’s natural to expect points in abundance on Tuesday night. Baylor’s defense is a concern for a second straight season and it wouldn’t be shocking to see BYU’s beautiful offense find some success as it looks to bounce back from its worst performance of the season. 

On the flip side, BYU’s defensive metrics look elite, but we’ll see if that holds up against tougher competition. Baylor has elite guard play with several shooters ready to beat you in a multitude of ways, so this is a test like the Cougars have yet to see this season. 

Foster Pavilion is one handicapping factor that’s difficult to price into the total. We have one data point thus far and it resulted in a whopping 177 points, so I’m working under the assumption that Baylor’s offense will continue to hum in this environment. 

This game should be played at a decent pace. BYU checks in at 111th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric while Baylor isn’t too far behind at 183rd. Considering the efficiency of both teams, there should be enough possessions to expect plenty of baskets on Tuesday night. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

BYU vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has already seen a fair amount of fluctuation. After opening at Baylor -3.5 across a few books, the number moved to -2.5 for a bit. Then it jumped back up to -3.5 at some books with -3 also available as of Tuesday morning. 

Be sure to check out the latest college basketball odds and use our college basketball line movement tool to ensure you grab the best price available before placing your wager. 

It seems as though both teams should be close to full strength for this contest. BYU forward Fousseyni Traore is the biggest name to monitor in the health front. He returned to the court for BYU’s last game but played just eight minutes and did not appear to be 100%. 

Both teams have been terrific at covering spreads this season. BYU is 11-3 ATS while Baylor isn’t far behind at 9-3-1 ATS. 

In my opinion, the most important trend for this matchup is that Baylor is 6-2 ATS at home this season, including six straight covers. BYU, meanwhile, has played in just one true road game all year, falling 73-69 to Utah as 2.5-point favorites. 

BYU vs Baylor betting trend to know

Baylor is 6-0 ATS across its last six home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for BYU vs. Baylor.

BYU vs Baylor game info

BYU vs Baylor key injuries

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