Creighton vs Villanova Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bluejays Get Wings Clipped by Wildcats

The Villanova Wildcats will try to continue their late-season surge as they take on the Creighton Bluejays in the second round of the Big East Tournament on Thursday at Madison Square Garden.

The Wildcats (17-15) started the Big East Tournament with an emphatic 80-48 win over the Georgetown Hoyas on Wednesday. No. 24 Creighton (20-11) earned a first-round bye by going 14-6 in conference play this year.

Villanova has found some success against the Bluejays this year, as the two teams split their regular season contests. We’ll discuss what that means for tonight’s game in our college basketball picks and predictions for Creighton vs Villanova on Thursday, March 9.

Creighton vs Villanova best odds

Creighton vs Villanova picks and predictions

Villanova doesn’t have any chance to make the NCAA Tournament, provided it doesn’t go all the way and win the Big East title this weekend. However, the Wildcats have been playing remarkably better over the last month, winning seven of their past nine games to rescue what seemed like a lost season.

During that stretch, Villanova has done a great job of grinding opponents into submission. Only one opponent has scored more than 73 points against the Wildcats in their last 14 games, while they’ve managed to make the most of the limited number of possessions they play with. 

Villanova moves the ball around well, with Eric Dixon (15.4 ppg), Caleb Daniels (14.4 ppg), Justin Moore (13.6 ppg), and Cam Whitmore (12.9 ppg) all contributing on a nightly basis. It’s not the prettiest offense you’ve ever seen — the Wildcats are among the poorest shooting teams in the Big East — but down the stretch it has done enough to grind out wins.

For most of the season, Creighton has simply been a better team than Villanova. After a mediocre 9-8 start, the Bluejays took off on an eight-game winning streak that effectively sealed their NCAA Tournament bid. The end of the season hasn’t been kind to them, as they’ve lost three of their last six, but easy wins against Georgetown and the DePaul Blue Demons have righted the ship a bit heading into the postseason.

One of those late-season losses came at Villanova. The Wildcats once again played outstanding defense, holding the Bluejays to just 67 points on the night. Dixon led Villanova with 31 points, while Creighton shot just 39% from the field, and 5-for-26 from 3-point range.

That’s enough to feel like there’s at least some upset potential tonight. Even the first game between these two teams at Creighton was close, with Villanova holding a lead in the final minute before falling to the Bluejays. Once again, the Wildcats held Creighton to just 37.7% from the field on that night.

Despite those results, and the fact that Villanova seems to be playing its best basketball of the year right now, Creighton is still a substantial favorite tonight. That means that rather than taking a few points on the spread, we can get some significant value on the moneyline by picking the Wildcats to win outright.

There’s no guarantee that Villanova moves on in the tournament tonight. But when we can get nearly +200 on the Wildcats after they’ve already beaten the Bluejays this year and nearly did it twice, I’m happy to take those odds.

My best bet: Villanova moneyline (+185 at PointsBet)

Creighton vs Villanova spread analysis

Creighton opened tonight’s game as a five-point favorite. The action has pushed the line slightly towards Villanova, with many sites either moving to Creighton -4.5, or shortening the odds on Villanova +5. 

Neither team has been great against the spread this year. Creighton has gone just 15-16 ATS, while the Wildcats are 14-18 ATS on the season.

However, Villanova covered in both games against the Bluejays this year. That includes the five-point loss at Creighton, when the Bluejays came in as a 9.5-point favorite. 

Again, it’s worth remembering that even in that game, Villanova managed to take a one-point lead in the final minute. It’s hard to deny the fact that the Wildcats have given Creighton serious trouble for all 80 minutes they’ve played this year.

While I picked the moneyline wager on Villanova as my best bet for this game, I do like the Wildcats on the spread as well. I just feel that there’s more value on picking them to win the game outright rather than paying -110 to get a few points in case Creighton holds on to win by a narrow margin. 

Either way, I recommend backing Villanova tonight in a game they absolutely have a chance to win outright.

Creighton vs Villanova Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 134.5, and has largely stayed there throughout the day. While you can find a 134 out there, 134.5 remains the consensus Over/Under.

Both teams have played slightly towards the Under this year, though those numbers are near enough to .500 that there’s no real pattern. Villanova has hit the Under in five of its last eight games, while the Over has come in on each of Creighton’s last three contests.

When we look at how these teams play against tonight’s total, we also have a mixed bag. The Bluejays have finished with totals of 135 or more six straight times heading into tonight’s game. Meanwhile, Villanova has bounced around that number a bit, going below it in five of their last nine.

Is it possible to draw anything from the last two games these teams played? Unfortunately, not really. The total went well over when Villanova won the second game, but Creighton’s win finished with a total of just 127.

That’s enough of a muddled mess for me to stay far away from the Over/Under tonight. 

If you’re going to bet on the total, the Over makes more sense, as Villanova has already won a game that went above the total. Creighton is more likely to find success in a faster-paced, high-scoring game. Still, my advice is to stick to betting the Villanova spread or moneyline in this game.

Creighton vs Villanova betting trend to know

Villanova is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Creighton vs. Villanova.

Creighton vs Villanova game info

Creighton vs Villanova key injuries

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