March Madness has arrived and deep in the NCAA Tournament is a pile of trends, bets, and upsets awaiting you.
Some odds have already moved because of the release of the bracket.
Let's ponder some numbers and possible bets March Madness picks ahead of the chaos.
March Madness by the numbers
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+3,500: Gonzaga’s March Madness odds after the bracket reveal, compared to +5,000 beforehand. The Bulldogs and Illinois (+5,000 now; was +8,000) enjoyed the biggest jumps after their seedings, both in the Midwest region.
Perhaps that is doubt in top-seed Houston, but more likely, it is doubt in No. 2 Tennessee, No. 3 Kentucky, No. 4 Purdue and No. 5 Clemson. In particular, it is doubt in Kentucky and Purdue. To use Ken Pomeroy’s rankings as a guide, those are the lowest 3 and 4 seeds, respectively.
68: Games in the NCAA Tournament this year no matter what expansionists want in the future.
+781: A conservative estimate of the payout on a moneyline rollover through the tournament for Houston, compared to the title odds of +700 available at bet365. The Cougars are mentioned here because they are the title pick for yours truly, but this approach holds up nearly no matter who your national champion bet is.
14: SEC teams in the Tournament, from a 16-team conference. How bad must LSU and South Carolina be, huh?
Do not assume the SEC will dominate the next few weeks. When the Big East got 11 teams into the 2011 tournament, including nine as 6 seeds or better, care to guess how many made it to just the second weekend? Only two. UConn was the sole representative in the Final Four, winning the national championship.
In 2012, the Big East got nine teams into the tournament, including five as 6 seeds or better. Only four made it to the second weekend, with just one in the Final Four.
In both 2017 and 2018, the ACC placed nine teams into the tournament, with at least five as six seeds or better. Between those two seasons, the ACC saw just one team make the Final Four.
There is some logic to doubting a conference’s superiority. It builds itself on its reputation and that is exposed in the postseason.
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5: First-round games with college basketball odds within a bucket as of Monday afternoon, including the very first game of the tournament, No. 8 Louisville a 2.5-point favorite against No. 9 Creighton. Also …
- No. 5 Michigan -2.5 vs. No. 12 UC San Diego
- No. 6 BYU -3 vs. No. 11 VCU
- No. 8 Mississippi State -2 vs. No. 9 Baylor
- No. 12 Colorado State -2.5 vs. No. 5 Memphis
Yes, you read that right. The 12th-seeded Colorado State Rams are 2.5-point favorites against the Memphis Tigers. Anyone surprised by that has not paid enough attention to the Mountain West. Ken Pomeroy considered it to be the sixth-best conference this year, barely behind the ACC and well ahead of the AAC, Memphis’s home.
This will be the easiest way to tell who in your bracket pool is a threat and who made their picks on the fly. Those who pick the Tigers because of their seed line did not ponder further, while those who recognize the quality of the Rams probably follow college basketball closely.
4: Duke may have four first-round picks among its starting five, led by the clear No. 1 pick, Cooper Flagg. Most mock drafts these days also feature center Khaman Maluach and forward Kon Knueppel in the lottery with wing Isaiah Evans later in the opening round. The four freshmen are buttressed by possible second-round picks in junior Tyrese Proctor and senior Sion James.
+300: Duke is the clear favorite to win the 2025 title. The Blue Devils were before the bracket was released, then available at +320 at bet365 with Auburn enjoying the second-shortest odds at +425. The March Madness bracket reveal helped Duke, its odds dropping to +300 while Auburn’s jumped to +500. Florida slid between the two, to +425 from +450.
1-in-It Isn’t Going To Happen: You have heard the absurd odds of picking a perfect bracket. 1 in 9.2 quintillion. That is a nine followed by 18 zeros. Nine billion billions. It isn’t going to happen.
