March Madness can be an overwhelming time for college basketball bettors with 36 games and a lot of numbers to digest before the NCAA Tournament tips off.
Not to worry though, because I've got March Madness score predictions and March Madness picks for every game in the first round.
These predictions are based on a combination of my own ratings, odds, and the data analysts at KenPom, Bart Torvik, and Haslametrics.
Use this as your little cheat sheet for your bracket and best bets and enjoy the chaos that is March Madness.
March Madness score predictions
First Four
Tuesday
St Francis PA vs Alabama State
Score prediction: Alabama State 72-70
I'm not even sure how the Sant Francis made it this far after the Red Flash went just 8-8 during the regular season in the weak Northeast Conference. The Hornets will have the edge between a pair of teams that will get slaughtered in the first round.
North Carolina vs SDSU
Score prediction: North Carolina 75-52
This should be a dogfight between a UNC squad that has looked better over the last month and an SDSU program that has been a March Madness staple for the last decade. The Tar Heels have gone with a bigger lineup in recent weeks and that combined with their better shot-makers will lead to a hard-fought win.
Wednesday
Mount Saint Mary's vs American
Score prediction: American 64-62
The Mount Saint Mary's Mountaineers are sloppy with the ball, ranking near the bottom of the country in turnover rate. The American Eagles do a better job of taking care of the ball and they have the more experienced squad. They also play at a slow-as-molasses pace which should result in a snoozer of a win.
Xavier vs Texas
Score prediction: Xavier 80-75
The Musketeers are peaking at the right time and had won seven in a row before losing a heartbreaker to the Golden Eagles in the Big East quarterfinal. This will practically be a home game for them and they get to face a Texas squad that has been awful on defense over the last month and a half.
South Region
(1) Auburn vs (16) Alabama State/Saint Francis
Score prediction: TBA
(8) Louisville vs (9) Creighton
Score prediction: Creighton 75-72
The Cardinals are favored here but I like Creighton to pull off the small upset. The Bluejays have a highly-experienced backcourt along with three-time All-Big East center Ryan Kalkbrenner which makes them a tough out in the first few rounds.
(5) Michigan vs (12) UC San Diego
Score prediction: UC San Diego 70-69
Everyone is looking for the next 5/12 upset and the Tritons might provide it. UC San Diego leads the country with a turnover margin of +7.8 per game while the Wolverines are outside the Top 300 at -2.8.
(4) Texas A&M vs (13) Yale
Score prediction: Texas A&M 70-66
Texas A&M's biggest strengths are ball-pressure and elite rebounding but Yale is a Top-20 team in turnover rate and rebounding rate. The Aggies' suffocating defense should get the win but the Bulldogs won't be an easy out.
(6) Mississippi vs (11) North Carolina/San Diego State
Score prediction: TBA
(3) Iowa State vs (14) Lipscomb
Score prediction: Iowa State 80-66
The Cyclones enter the tourney on a rough patch, going 3-4 in their last seven games. That said, they are still a Top 20 team on offense and defense according to KenPom, and should make quick work of the ASUN champs.
(7) Marquette vs (10) New Mexico
Score prediction: New Mexico 74-72
There isn't much separating the talent level in the Mountain West Conference from the Big East and Lobos have a stingy defense and are far better on the glass than Marquette. The Golden Eagles are 5-7 in their last seven and I think we'll get an upset here.
(2) Michigan State vs (15) Bryant
Score prediction: Michigan 84-66
The Bulldogs play at a blazing-fast pace but the Spartans will be able to slow them down with their elite defense. Michigan State has one of the deepest teams in the country and will have no problem running up the score even with its starters on the bench.
West Region
(1) Florida vs (16) Norfolk State
Score prediction: Florida 90-60
Coach Robert Jones has done a great job at Norfolk State but Florida is on a whole other level. The Gators are the hottest team in the country and have the depth to keep scoring even with their reserves in the game. When the Spartans previously made the NCAA Tournament in 2022 and 2021, they lost by more than 40 points in the first round both times.
(8) UConn vs (9) Oklahoma
Score prediction: UConn 76-74
This isn't anywhere near the same caliber of UConn squad that won the last two national titles but I'm not betting against Dan Hurley in the first round. Especially against a soft Oklahoma squad that doesn't rebound and does a terrible job of protecting the interior.
(5) Memphis vs (12) Colorado State
Score prediction: Colorado State 75-73
No. 12 vs. No5 upsets are always trendy and in this case, it wouldn't actually be an upset with the Rams installed as 2.5-point faves. They'll shock the casuals but not us bettors who know that the Mountain West champs are the right side.
(4) Maryland vs (13) Grand Canyon
Score prediction: Maryland 82-74
I love how balanced the Terrapins are but the Lopes are a tougher matchup for them than the double-digit spread suggests. The Lopes are experienced, do a great job of defending the 3-point line, and have the size to hang with Maryland's twin towers of Derik Queen and Julian Reese.
(6) Missouri vs (11) Drake
Score prediction: Missouri 74-64
The Bulldogs will try to slow down the Tigers but Mizzou's offense will be too efficient even with fewer possessions.
(3) Texas Tech vs (14) UNC Wilmington
Score prediction: Texas Tech 74-68
With the status of second and third-leading scorers Darrion Williams (14.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.7 apg) and Chance McMillian (14.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg) up in the air, this could be a tougher task for Texas Tech than the typical 3/14 matchup.
(7) Kansas vs (10) Arkansas
Score prediction: Arkansas 70-68
The Razorbacks have been playing well down the stretch despite the absence of leading scorer Adou Thiero. They've been rolling with a bigger lineup that could lead to an upset against the Jayhawks who've been a major disappointment after looking fantastic in November.
(2) St. John's vs (15) Omaha
Score prediction: St. John's 82-60
The Johnnies ended the season with the top-rated defense in the country per KenPom while the Mavericks are outside the Top 250. Nebraska Omaha also doesn't have the length or athleticism to keep up with a St. John's squad that pushes the pace.
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East Region
(1) Duke vs (16) American/Mount Saint Mary's
Score prediction: TBA
(8) Mississippi State vs (9) Baylor
Score prediction: Baylor 76-72
The Bulldogs have backed into the tourney losing five of their last seven games, with their only wins during that span coming against SEC cellar-dweller LSU. Miss State struggles to defend the perimeter and the Bears have a ton of perimeter scorers along with All Big-12 forward Norchad Omier in the frontcourt.
(5) Oregon vs (12) Liberty
Score prediction: Oregon 74-66
This is a tough travel spot for the Flames who fly from Virginia to Seattle for a 10 p.m. ET tipoff while the Ducks are already on the West Coast. Oregon coach Dana Altman will be able to gameplan against a one-dimensional Liberty attack that relies on threes. Expect Oregon to lean on center Nate Bittle and their imposing frontcourt against a Flames squad that has one of the smallest lineups in the country.
(4) Arizona vs (13) Akron
Score prediction: Arizona 90-80
This should be a fun game between a pair of high-scoring teams that love to push the pace. The Wildcats should get the win thanks to their significant size advantage but the Zips will make things entertaining.
(6) BYU vs (11) VCU
Score prediction: BYU 76-70
The Cougars caught on fire down the stretch winning nine in a row (including upset victories against Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State) before falling to Houston in the Big 12 semifinal. BYU is used to playing at altitude and will thrive at the elevation in Denver
(3) Wisconsin vs (14) Montana
Score prediction: Wisconsin 85-67
These aren't the Badgers of the last few years who played at a snail's pace and couldn't score consistently. Wisconsin is 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while the Grizzlies are outside the Top 250 in adjusted defense and got wrecked when they played high-major foes earlier this season.
(7) Saint Mary's vs (10) Vanderbilt
Score prediction: Saint Mary's 70-68
With an elite defense and the ability to slow games down to a crawl, the Gaels should get the win. That said, Vandy has been slugging it out in the SEC and won't be overwhelmed by a WCC foe.
(2) Alabama vs (15) Robert Morris
Score prediction: Alabama 95-72
With the highest-scoring offense in the country and a breakneck pace, the Tide should no problem winning with margin here. Especially since the Colonials can't slow down foes and sit outside the Top 200 in opponent 3-point percentage.
Midwest Region
(1) Houston vs (16) SIU Edwardsville
Score prediction: Houston 78-50
This game might get confusing with the Cougars nickname on both sides but the difference between these two sides on the court will be obvious. SIUE is outside the Top 250 in adjusted offense and adjusted tempo and they'll be shut out by an elite Houston defense that plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.
(8) Gonzaga vs (9) Georgia
Score prediction: Gonzaga 78-74
The Zags didn't look great in the non-conference part of their schedule this season, losing to West Virginia, Kentucky, UConn, and UCLA. They'll advance thanks to their experience and ability to attack the rim but it won't be easy.
(5) Clemson vs (12) McNeese State
Score prediction: Clemson 71-65
This is the Cowboys second-straight trip to the Big Dance and I think they'll give a better account than last year when they lost by 21 to Gonzaga. That said, the Tigers are in the Top 25 on both offense and defense per KenPom and will be tough to rattle due to their experience. The Cowboys will be competitive but the Tigers will pull away late.
(4) Purdue vs (14) High Point
Score prediction: Purdue 82-74
Both teams play at a slower tempo but we should still see plenty of points here. The Boilermakers are seventh in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 16th in eFG% (56.3%). However, they are just 350th in opponent 2PT% (56.4%) while the Panthers are 15th in 2-point percentage (57.4%).
(6) Illinois vs (11) Texas/Xavier
Score prediction: TBA
(3) Kentucky vs (14) Troy
Score prediction: Kentucky 84-70
The Wildcats haven't been consistent over the last couple of months and they haven't looked the same since losing Jaxson Robinson to a season-ending injury. That said, there's a big difference between the teams they were facing in the SEC and a Sun Belt champion like Troy. The Trojans don't have the firepower to keep pace with Kentucky.
(7) UCLA vs (10) Utah State
Score prediction: Utah State 74-72
This will be a classic battle between a highly efficient Aggies offense and a hard-nosed UCLA defense. The Bruins have looked shaky down the stretch and finished Big Ten play just 12th in the conference in 2-point defense (53.6%). This looks like a potential upset spot for a talented Utah State squad that is 12th in the country in 2-point percentage (57.7%).
(2) Tennessee vs (15) Wofford
Score prediction: Tennessee 76-52
The Terriers have only played one high-major foe all season. That was the Duke Blue Devils back in November and they were held to a pathetic 35 points. Good luck against the Vols dominant defense that will be pissed off after a lopsided loss in the SEC Tournament Final.
