The “Madness” of March can be a dangerous place for college basketball bettors. It’s very easy to get swept up in the Cinderella stories, making every underdog a “live” bet to cover the spread.
The truth, however, is far less romantic.
Last year’s Big Dance saw betting underdogs go 20-47 SU and 27-40 ATS (from First Four to Final). That’s a mere 40% cover rate for NCAA Tournament pups. But that’s not to say there isn’t value is taking the points this March.
If you’re looking for a little bark in your college basketball bets, here are three underdog March Madness picks I believe have bite in the opening rounds of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
3 March Madness underdogs to bet
No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks: Arkansas +4.5 (-110 at bet365)
I can’t take full credit for this wager. My Covers colleague Rohit Ponnaiya was all over the Arkansas Razorbacks out of the gate, betting the Razorbacks +4.5.
He likes the Hogs’ lineup moves from head coach John Calipari, who knows a thing or two about winning in March. Arkansas is down standout Adou Thiero for the Round of 64 but has countered that by going big and tightening up on defense.
The Kansas Jayhawks have been one of the biggest disappointments of the season and back into the bracket with a 4-5 record in its last nine, including a flop in the Big 12 tournament. The Razorbacks, on the other hand, are playing their best basketball at the right time and own a 9-3-1 ATS mark in their last 13 games.
Game models give KU the nod, but the margins are very tight with projections as low as Kansas winning by one point.
No. 13 Akron Zips vs. No. 4 Arizona Wildcats: Akron +14 (-110 at bet365)
The Akron Zips' offense is a handful. The Zips play at a fast pace and thrive in the open court while also making teams pay from beyond the arc. Akron averages almost 11 triples on 36.6% shooting.
The Arizona Wildcats look much stronger on paper, but the Wildcats have their faults, especially when it comes to perimeter shooting. Arizona isn’t great from deep, hitting less than seven 3-pointers per game. If the Zips get hot from outside, the Wildcats may not be able to go tit-for-tat.
Akron might not knock off this college blue blood in the Round of 64 but game projections range from Arizona by 16 to as short as a five-point game. My number comes out to a Wildcats win by 12.
No. 16 Mount Saint Mary’s Mountaineers vs. No. 16 American Eagles: Mount Saint Mary’s +2.5 (-110 at bet365)
Unlike most March Madness matchups, these two play-in programs from the DMV know each other well. They’ve played in non-conference competition six times since 2017 with each of those outings being very competitive.
The St. Mary's Mountaineers and American Eagles run methodical offenses ranked low in tempo, so neither team will run away with this game.
American is reliant on the 3-pointer, with more than 37% of its offense coming from distance. Mount Saint Mary’s defense protects the perimeter, allowing just 31.4% success from outside. The Mountaineers are also very sound on the glass, so don’t expect any second-chance looks from American University.
With this game taking the teams to Dayton on a short turnaround, I’m leaning toward Mount Saint Mary’s and its stellar results away from home. The Mountaineers are a collective 14-3 ATS outside of Emmitsburg.
Game models basically call for a one-point game with the winner varying from forecast to forecast. That’s good enough for me when getting +2.5 with the Mountaineers.
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