DePaul vs Villanova Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Early Bird Gets the Worm

Closing up the first day of the Big East Conference Tournament bracket are two teams with likely two very different outlooks on the season the rest of the way.

The DePaul Blue Demons have been a disaster this season. After a mid-season firing of their head coach, it became apparent this was a lost year for the Demons. They ended the season as not only the worst Power Five team in the country — even worse than Louisville despite its head-to-head win — but possibly one of the worst teams in the entire sport.

The Villanova Wildcats will enter this game right on the fringe of the March Madness odds. A win here won't help it make its case for that spot much either way; however, a loss would all but end those hopes.

Find out where the best bet lies when I dive into the conference tournament odds and give my college basketball picks for Wednesday, March 13.

DePaul vs Villanova best odds

DePaul vs Villanova picks and predictions

There's no legitimate argument for the DePaul Blue Demons to win this game or stay within single digits. You'll get more effort than you've got in the last few weeks, where it was playing games that meant nothing, yet still, the talent is at an all-time low, and it's a team that's been void of any direction for the past month.

In some spots like this, it's easy to be swayed into thinking the underdog can stay within the number and that it's just far too big of one to be expected to cover in a tournament setting, but this is no ordinary situation; DePaul is not an "ordinary bad," and according to head coach Kyle Neptune, the Villanova Wildcats will be sharp. 

 "We all understand the situation," Wildcats coach Kyle Neptune said. "Everyone in this room, all the fans know it."

I believe him, but even if I didn't, the DePaul situation is so bad, and things are so bleak that it would be near impossible to think that Villanova could misstep here. The best way to attack this game, for me, is early. I expect the Wildcats to come out with an intensity and emphasis to leave no doubt and put this game away quickly. 

DePaul enters this game with one the worst first-half margins in college basketball. During the season, it lost those first frames by an average of 10.5 points, the third-worst mark in the country.

However, over the last three games? It's gotten much, much worse. That number has gone to 17.5 points, the third-worst mark in the sport over that span. Again, there's no reasonable logic to suggest DePaul keeps this close. This is just another area that highlights that.

On the court, the Cats can pick where they'd like to attack this poor DePaul defense. 

One of the best spots is likely to be in pick-and-roll situations. There's no team worse in college basketball defending middle-ball screens than DePaul. It's allowed 1.008 points per possession on such sets and 48% shooting. Both of those are at the very bottom of the barrel.

Villanova isn't the best pick-and-roll team in college basketball, but it's more than capable of attacking here. That holds more accurately given what we've seen from Justin Moore over the last few weeks. He's scored in double figures in three of his previous four games and started to get back to the player we saw before the injury a few years ago. The same one that took home multiple all-conference accolades. 

Grab Villanova early. It should have a sense of urgency to clear up any doubt surrounding this game. It's also getting what's one of the worst teams in the sport, and one of the worst attributes of its game is how it starts games. The Cats' should be able to exploit ball screens to put up points regularly, and I especially expect that to be on display early.

My best bet: Villanova -15 1H (-110 at DraftKings)

DePaul vs Villanova same-game parlay

Villanova -15 1H

Justin Moore Over 11.5 points

+243 at DraftKings

It's hard to qualify how bad DePaul is defensively. In almost three years of college basketball, there has yet to be a team that finished the year allowing over a point per possession on pick-and-roll sets in the sport.

DePaul is set to do that with room to spare and Justin Moore should be the one most due to profit from this. He's been used increasingly in such sets to end the season and has started to play much better lately. That's why we would like him to eclipse this point in total.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

DePaul vs Villanova spread and Over/Under analysis

At the risk of repeating myself, we expect Villanova to cruise by a comfortable margin here. The only conversation is about how much interest Villanova will have at the end of the game to cover such a wide margin. That directly reflects the handicap of my best bet and why I lean much more too early in the game.

DePaul has covered just once in its last four games and has looked like it's had no interest in playing games down the stretch. Villanova has had an up-and-down month but has been highly competitive every time it's taken the court. It's hard to find teams trending in opposite directions.

I lean towards the Over here because of how bad Depaul's defense has been. 

The trends have followed that, too. The Over is an excellent 7-3 in DePaul's last ten games. In addition, it's hit in three of the last four head-to-head meetings between these two schools. The total opened up at 136.5 and has seen movement since. 

DePaul vs Villanova betting trend to know

DePaul has only hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 31 games (-27.30 Units / -72% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for DePaul vs. Villanova.

DePaul vs Villanova game info

DePaul vs Villanova key injuries

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