The No. 3-ranked Duke Blue Devils face off against the Illinois Fighting Illini tonight at Madison Square Garden on Fox.
The Illini have struggled over the past month, which is why my Illinois vs. Duke predictions are willing to lay a significant number on the Blue Devils.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this 8 p.m. ET non-conference tilt on Saturday, February 22.
Duke vs Illinois prediction
My best bet
Duke -9.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Illinois Fighting Illini have a talented roster but illness and injuries have ravaged this squad over the last month and that's been evident on the score sheet. They are coming off back-to-back losses by 14+ points and have gone 4-6 straight up and 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games.
Meanwhile, the Duke Blue Devils are 18-1 SU and 12-7 ATS since the start of December. They have an incredible 15 victories by double digits over that span and also pulled off an 84-78 upset win against No. 1 Auburn.
At full strength, the Illini are one of the few teams in the country that can match up with Duke's incredible length. However, backup big man Morez Johnson is sidelined by a broken wrist, and center Tomislav Ivisic is still feeling the effects of mono that caused him to lose seven pounds by Tuesday's 21-point loss to Wisconsin.
This Illinois offense attempts threes at the 28th-highest rate in the country but sits outside the Top 300 in 3-point percentage (31.2%). The Illini are also second-last in the Big Ten in free-throw rate. That won't make it easy for them to score against the Blue Devils, who are fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and fifth in opponent effective field goal percentage (44.4%).
The Blue Devils are also second in the country in adjusted offense. They are 11th in 2-point percentage (57.8%), 20th in 3-point percentage (37.9%), and 28th in turnover rate (14.3%). That highly efficient attack will run up the score against an Illinois squad that has surrendered 81.2 PPG in its last 10.
Cooper Flagg pick: Calling his own number
My best bet
Cooper Flagg Over 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Cooper Flagg has scored fewer than 20 points in four of his last five games. That said, the consensus first-overall pick in the upcoming draft should be in for a big performance tonight.
While the superstar freshman often looks to get his teammates involved, he tends to look for his own shot in big games. This is a massive non-conference game against a talented Illinois squad and it will be under the bright lights at historic Madison Square Garden.
The Illini also play at a blazing-fast pace (16th in the country in adjusted tempo) and have struggled on defense over the past month. Expect a heavy offensive workload for Flagg which should lead to him surpassing his points prop.
Duke vs Illinois same-game parlay (SGP)
Duke -9.5
Cooper Flagg 20+ points
Ben Humrichous Over 8.5 points
With Johnson sidelined and Ivisic on the mend from being sick (he came off the bench to score just seven points on Tuesday), Ben Humrichous has seen his role grow. The forward is coming off a game where he dropped 13 points on 4-for-11 shooting and has now scored at least nine points in four of his last five contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Duke vs Illinois odds
Duke vs Illinois live odds
Duke vs Illinois opening odds
- Spread: Duke -10.5 | Illinois +10.5
- Moneyline: Duke -485 | Illinois +370
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 | Under 152.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Duke vs Illinois betting trend to know
Illinois is 2-5 ATS against ranked opponents this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Illinois.
How to watch Duke vs Illinois
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Saturday, 2-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Duke vs Illinois key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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