The No. 12 Duke Blue Devils face off against the Louisville Cardinals on Tuesday. The Blue Devils are coming off an upset loss at home which snapped an eight-game winning streak, but they couldn't ask for a better opponent to bounce back against with the Cardinals once again at the bottom of the ACC standings.
College basketball odds have the Devils installed as 14.5-point road favorites with the total at 150.5 for this clash. Here are my free college basketball picks for Duke vs. Louisville on January 23.
Duke vs Louisville best odds
Duke vs Louisville picks and predictions
The Duke Blue Devils are coming off a pair of ugly performances at home, beating Georgia Tech by just five points as 17.5-point chalk before losing outright to Pittsburgh as 12.5-point faves. They were shockingly poor on defense in both contests, allowing the Panthers and Yellow Jackets to shoot a combined 52.6% from the floor and 52.5% from deep.
Considering the Blue Devils are 27th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and have held their previous seven opponents to just 63.0 points per game, I'm expecting a much better defensive effort tonight.
The Louisville Cardinals have dropped six of their last seven games, and in their last contest, they mustered just 65 points against Wake Forest. The Cardinals sit outside the Top 200 in field goal (43.6%) and 3-point percentage (32.3%) and unlike most schools, they haven't been shooting any better at home than away.
Although Duke is in the Top 30 in field goal percentage (48.3%) and 3-point percentage (37.9%) those numbers plummet to 42.7% and 31.7% on the road. It's also worth mentioning that while the Blue Devils have excelled on the defensive glass (29th in defensive rebounding rate) they rank just 174th in offensive rebounding rate.
Both offenses are also well below average in transition and prefer to take their time in half-court sets. When you also factor in Duke might be missing its second and third-leading scorers in point guard Jeremy Roach and forward Mark Mitchell (both game-time decisions with a knee injury), the Under is the play here.
My best bet: Under 150.5 (-110 at bet365)
Duke vs Louisville same-game parlay
Under 150
Jared McCain Over 12.5 points
Mike James Under 1.5 made threes
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Duke freshman Jared McCain is starting to hit his stride. After averaging just 7.6 points per game in his first eight games, he's upped that number to 16.2 in his last nine contests. The five-star recruit is a dead-eye shooter from deep and the Cardinals defend poorly on the perimeter. He also dropped 20 points on a season-high 14 field goal attempts against Pitt with Roach and Mitchell sidelined, and if they're unable to play again, he'll be in line for another high-usage night.
Mike James leads Louisville in scoring with 14.6 ppg but he's been extremely streaky from beyond the arc. In his last 10 games, he's knocked down more than 1.5 treys in three contests. Granted in those three games he shot a sizzling 13-of-17 from deep... but in the other seven he went a combined 3-14 from long range.
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Duke vs Louisville spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened with Duke installed as a 14-point road favorite with the Over/Under at 153.5. The spread has slimmed slightly to -13.5 while money has poured in on the Under, moving the total as low as 149.5 by noon ET — although some books are still offering 150.5.
The Blue Devils are coming off an 80-76 loss at home to Pitt which is shocking since they hammered the Panthers 75-53 in Pittsburgh two weeks ago. They're 13th in the KenPom ratings and 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency, but if they don't have Roach and Mitchell for the second-straight game that would hurt on that end of the floor.
The Cardinals are fresh off a 90-65 beatdown at the hands of Wake Forest. Louisville is just 1-10 SU against Power Five conference foes but has covered the spread in three of its last four. The Cards are 194th in the KenPom ratings but have been more competitive than last season when they went 4-28 in Kenny Payne's first year at the helm.
Duke vs Louisville betting trend to know
The Under has cashed in 10 of Duke's last 14 away games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Louisville.
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Duke vs Louisville game info
| Location: | KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 23, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
Duke vs Louisville key injuries
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