The No.1 Duke Blue Devils welcome the Florida State Seminoles to Cameron Indoor Stadium tonight.
In the wake of the news that the Blue Devils have ruled out starting guard Tyrese Proctor, my Florida State vs. Duke predictions are backing his replacement to shine.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this ACC showdown on Saturday, March 1.
Florida State vs Duke prediction
My best bet
Isaiah Evans Over 11.5 points (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
Duke Blue Devils guard Isaiah Evans has scored at least 16 points in three-straight games, and he's poised for another strong performance tonight. Evans has been a bit overshadowed by Duke's starting freshmen trio of Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Khaman Maluach, but don't forget that he was also a Top-15 recruit at one point.
Evans has struggled to get playing time in this stacked Duke lineup but has shined when given burn. He scored 16 points in 21 minutes against Boston College last month and was the hero of Duke's win against No. 1 Auburn in December, racking up 18 points in just 16 minutes.
The freshman is coming off a season-high 26 minutes against Miami. He'll likely get at least as much playing time tonight since he should get his first career start with guard Tyrese Proctor ruled out due to a knee injury.
Although the Blue Devils have relied on their elite defense to win games at the start of the season, they've ramped up their offensive output lately, averaging 98.3 ppg over their last four games.
Meanwhile, the Florida State Seminoles play at a blazing fast pace and are coming off back-to-back defeats where they surrendered 89 points to Louisville and 96 to North Carolina.
A whopping 83% of Evans's shots come from beyond the arc, and he boasts a sizzling 47.1 3-point percentage. The Noles are 274th in the country in Open 3 Rate per ShotQualityBets and are 14th in the ACC in opponent 3PT% (36.6%) during conference play.
Expect Evans to cook FSU from the perimeter and eclipse his points total.
Cooper Flagg pick: Dishing Dimes
My best bet
Cooper Flagg Over 4.5 assists (+135 at bet365)
My analysis
Freshman sensation Cooper Flagg is a high-end scorer and defender, but he's also an excellent passer who leads Duke with 4.1 assists per game.
With Proctor ruled out, Flagg's role as a facilitator could expand. He has dropped 5+ dimes in three of his last four games, and he tends to get his teammates more involved in blowout wins.
I anticipate plenty of points from this surging Duke offense, which should lead to Flagg eclipsing his assists total.
Florida State vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
Isaiah Evans Over 11.5 points
Cooper Flagg Over 4.5 assists
Jamir Watkins Over 16.5 points
While FSU might have issues with efficiency against this strong Duke defense, somebody will still benefit from the Noles' up-tempo attack. That someone is usually Jamir Watkins, who leads the school with 18.9 ppg.
Watkins has dropped 23+ points in back-to-back games and has hit the 20-point plateau seven times during conference play. Malique Ewin (14.0 ppg) is the only other Nole averaging double digits in points, and he's questionable due to an ankle injury. If Ewin sits out, that means even more shots are coming Watkins' way.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Florida State vs Duke odds
Florida State vs Duke live odds
Florida State vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: Florida State +23 | Duke -23
- Moneyline: Florida State +2500 | Duke -10000
- Over/Under: Over 149 | Under 149
Odds courtesy of bet365
Florida State vs Duke betting trend to know
The Seminoles are 3-7 SU and ATS in their last 10 games, while the Blue Devils have covered the spread in four straight. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida State vs. Duke.
How to watch Florida State vs Duke
| Location | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date | Saturday, 3-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ACCN |
Florida State vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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