The No. 6 seed Florida Gators face off against the No. 4 seed Auburn Tigers in the SEC Tournament bracket final on Sunday afternoon. The Tigers are national title contenders and have the seventh-best March Madness odds at +2,000, but don’t overlook the Gators who have the offensive firepower to hang with anybody and already beat Auburn earlier this year.
Conference tournament odds have the Tigers as 5.5-point favorites with the O/U at 156.5 for this clash at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Here are my free college basketball picks for Florida vs. Auburn on March 17.
Florida vs Auburn best odds
Florida vs Auburn picks and predictions
In the lone meeting between these teams this season the Florida Gators won 81-65 in Gainesville on February 10. The Auburn Tigers weren't their usual efficient selves on offense in that contest, turning the ball over 15 times while going just 3-for-17 (18%) from long range and 14-for-26 (54%) from the charity stripe.
Considering the Tigers usually take care of the ball and have shot a sizzling 43.7% from deep over their last seven games, expect positive regression in those areas against a Florida squad that struggles on defense.
The Gators are outside the Top 300 in opponent turnover rate (14.1%) while allowing SEC opponents to shoot 52.1% from inside the arc. That's bad news against an efficient Auburn offense that loves to attack the rim and is 34th in the country in 2-point percentage (54.6%) while ranking 42nd in TO rate (14.4%).
While the Gators have an explosive attack of their own, they might not have their usual offensive success against a stingy Auburn defense. The Tigers do a terrific job at defending the paint and hold opponents to just 42.5% shooting from inside the arc — the best number in the country. They also lock down on perimeter shooters ranking 19th in opponent three-point percentage (30.5%).
The Gators have been able to string together wins in this tourney because they've been able to score enough points to make up for their leaky defense. However, Auburn is the first team they've faced in months that is good enough defensively to get key stops.
We saw Mississippi State keep things relatively close against Auburn in the semifinals, but the Bulldogs were able to slow the game down and make things ugly. On the other hand, up-tempo Florida will play right into the hands of the Tigers who thrive in transition on both ends of the floor.
Interestingly enough, Auburn's seven-point win against the Bulldogs yesterday was just its first victory this season where it didn't win by double-digits. Don't hesitate to lay the 5.5 points with the faves here.
My best bet: Auburn -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
Florida vs Auburn same-game parlay
Auburn -5.5
Over 156.5
Johni Broome Over 0.5 made threes
Despite Auburn's stout defense, the Over looks like a strong play because of how efficient both offenses are and the speedy pace they prefer. Auburn is 61st in the country in adjusted tempo while Florida is 18th. The Gators have averaged an incredible 89.1 ppg over their last seven games but also surrendered 82.9 ppg over that span. No surprise that the Over cashed in all seven of those contests.
Center Johni Broome has been Auburn's best player and leads the team with 16.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game. The senior has improved as an outside shooter this season and has shown the ability to stretch the floor.
After hitting just nine 3-pointers in the first three years of his career, he's knocked down 27 triples this season at a 36% clip. He's drained at least one trey in 13 of his last 16 games and the Gators rank outside the Top 250 at defending catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble three pointers per ShotQualityBets.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Florida vs Auburn spread and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board on Saturday night with Auburn installed as a 5.5-point favorite and the Over/Under at 155.5. The spread has remained at -5.5 but money came in on the Over moving the total to as high as 157 as of 10 a.m. ET.
The Tigers beat Mississippi State 73-66 yesterday and they've now gone 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS since that loss in Gainesville. Auburn is the only school in the country that sits in the Top 10 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (10th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (fifth) per KenPom.
The Gators are 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency but are just 87th on defense. All three of their wins in the SEC tournament have been shootouts with Florida beating Georgia 85-80 in the second round and upsetting Alabama 102-88 in the quarterfinals before beating Texas A&M 95-90 last night.
Florida vs Auburn betting trend to know
The Tigers are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Auburn.
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Florida vs Auburn game info
| Location: | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Sunday, March 17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Florida vs Auburn key injuries
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