The No. 20 Auburn Tigers host the Florida Gators in college basketball action tonight. The Tigers have gone a perfect 7-0 at Neville Arena and oddsmakers expect that success at home to continue with college basketball odds opening with Auburn as 5.5-point chalk.
The favorite has gone 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these SEC rivals but I'm looking at a different bet with my free college basketball picks for Florida vs. Auburn on December 28.
Florida vs Auburn best odds
Florida vs Auburn picks and predictions
The Gators play at a fast pace and have been able to put up big numbers against smaller conference opponents... but they've struggled offensively against Power Six foes.
Florida is coming off a game where it scored just 53 points on 33% shooting against Oklahoma and the Gators also had games of 54 and 55 points (against UConn and West Virginia) within the last month. The Huskies are one of the top defensive teams in the country but the other two schools aren't rated as highly as Auburn, who ranks 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.
Auburn is coming off an excellent defensive performance on the road against Washington, where it limited the Huskies to 61 points on 37% shooting (including just 5 of 20 shooting from beyond the arc).
Center Colin Castleton has been Florida's best offensive player and while he's coming off a 22-point performance against the Sooners, he had struggled before that.
He's averaged just 9.4 ppg on 40.6% shooting in his previous seven games and he'll have a tough time tonight against defensive eraser Johni Broome, who leads the conference with 2.8 blocks per game while adding 8.2 rebounds and 1.2 steals per contest.
With the Tigers neutralizing Castleton inside and shutting down Florida's perimeter shooters, take the Under on the Gators team total.
My best bet: Florida team total Under 67.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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Florida vs Auburn spread analysis
The Tigers are coming off an 84-61 win against Washington, which allowed them to bounce back from a 74-71 road loss to USC. That loss to the Trojans was only their second loss all season, with the other being a defeat to Memphis on December 10.
That said, the Tigers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven and have played just two games against Quadrant 1 opponents (going 1-1).
The Gators have played five games against Quadrant 1 opponents... and lost all of them. They are fresh off a 62-53 neutral site loss to Oklahoma and while losing to Quadrant 1 foes is understandable, not being competitive is less acceptable.
Florida lost by 21 points to UConn at home earlier this month, was clobbered by 29 points to West Virginia in November, and it was upset at home (as 12-point chalk) to Florida Atlantic.
The Gators limit turnovers and generally shoot well from 3-point range (35.6 3PT%) although they went a pathetic 2-for-22 from deep against Oklahoma. However, they struggle on the offensive glass and their 2-point percentage of 50.1% ranks just 173rd in the country — and has dropped to just 44% over their last three games.
Castleton leads the team with 15.8 ppg with guards Will Richard and Trey Bonham also scoring in double-digits with 10.7 ppg and 10.2 ppg respectively. The Tigers also have three players averaging double-digits in points, led by Wendell Green Jr.
The weakness of this team last year was their guard play and they're running it back with their backcourt of Green and K.D. Johnson, who are combining to shoot just 38% from the floor and have nearly as many turnovers (59) as assists (61).
Florida vs Auburn Over/Under analysis
Auburn certainly has some issues on offense: The Tigers lack a true go-to-scorer and rank outside the Top 250 in both 3-point percentage and turnover rate. That said, they've been able to hide those flaws on offense with some excellent work on the other end of the floor.
The Tigers limit foes to a 38.8% field-goal percentage and their opponent 3-point percentage of 27.1% ranks 13th in the country. They should be able to frustrate a Florida team that shoots a modest 45.4% from the field, with that number dropping to 43% on the road.
The Gators are 26th in the country in adjusted tempo but their average length of possession of 16.9 seconds ranks outside the Top 100.
When it comes to Over/Under trends, the Tigers are 5-0 O/U in their last five while the Gators have cashed the Under in four straight.
Florida vs Auburn betting trend to know
The Gators are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more College basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Auburn.
Florida vs Auburn game info
| Location: | Neville Arena, Auburn, Alabama |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 28, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
ESPN2 |
