The Florida Gators head to Athens to take on the Georgia Bulldogs in NCAA basketball action on Tuesday night. Both of these SEC schools have been struggling in 2022-23 and are on three-game losing streaks, and neither team has been able to keep things close.
Somebody needs to win on Tuesday though, and oddsmakers expect it to be the visitors. College basketball betting lines opened with the Gators as 2.5-point favorites. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Florida vs. Georgia.
Florida vs Georgia best odds
Florida vs Georgia picks and predictions
Both of these teams are tough to trust against the spread given how badly they've been losing lately. However, the Georgia Bulldogs' recent home loss to Missouri doesn't accurately reflect their typical play at Stegeman Coliseum this season. They're 5-3 straight up at home during conference play, including upset victories against Auburn and Kentucky.
While the absence of Colin Castleton is obviously baked into this line, recent Florida Gators performances indicate that oddsmakers might not be placing enough value on the sidelined big man. Castleton wasn't just the team's top scorer (16.0 points per game) and rebounder (7.7 rebounds per game). He was also a game-changer on defense while blocking 3.0 shots per game and affecting many more.
Castleton's impact was massive when the Gators beat the Bulldogs 82-75 in Tallahassee earlier this season, blocking seven shots and helping to hold Georgia to just 16-for-48 shooting from inside the arc.
The dropoff from Castleton to current big man Jason Jitoboh has been huge. Jitoboh is averaging just 6.0 points per game and 2.0 rebounds over 22.7 minutes as a starter over the last three contests, and his immobility has been exposed on defense. Back the Bulldogs at home against a Florida team that's been crumbling without its best player.
My best bet: Georgia +2 (-110 at bet365)
Looking to do some college basketball betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Get one 33% profit boost for any college basketball parlay this week at Caesars! Opt-in Now
B) New users can bet $5 and get up to $200 in free bets at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Florida vs Georgia spread analysis
The Bulldogs are just 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS over their last 12 games, and they've somehow been looking even worse lately.
They're on a three-game losing streak, and their most recent 85-63 beatdown at the hands of Mizzu was actually the closest game during that span. Georgia was clobbered while suffering a 32-point loss to Arkansas, and the Bulldogs were stomped 108-59 against Alabama.
The Gators are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven and are coming off an ugly 88-72 loss to Vanderbilt. They've been a mess since losing Castleton to a season-ending injury on Feb. 15, dropping three straight without him.
With Castleton out of action, Florida's leading scorer is Will Richard, who averages 10 points per game on an impressive 48/40/87 shooting split.
The Bulldogs have just two players averaging double digits in points (Terry Roberts at 13.4 and Kario Oquendo at 12.9). However, the two guards have combined to shoot just 39.1% from the floor, and poor shooting has been plaguing the Bulldogs all season. Georgia is just 324th in the country in field-goal percentage (41.5%).
Florida vs Georgia Over/Under analysis
The Bulldogs have been awful on offense, but they've also been struggling in their own end and are surrendering 77.9 points per game on 46.1% shooting in conference play. They've been even worse lately, giving up 96.7 points per game and a 61.2 field-goal percentage during their last three contests.
As much as the Gators have been missing Castleton on offense, it's clear his absence is being felt even more on defense. The team was 37th in the country in defensive efficiency (93.6 points allowed per 100 possessions) until Castleton broke his hand. That efficiency has surged to 121.2 in three games since.
However, several Gators players have been stepping up on offense in an attempt to replace Castleton's scoring production. That includes freshman guard Riley Kugel, who's averaging 20.3 points per game over his team's last three contests.
The Gators are averaging a solid 73 points per matchup in their previous two games, but they've given up at least 82 points in their last three.
Florida vs Georgia betting trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in Florida's last seven games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Georgia.
Florida vs Georgia game info
| Location: | Stegeman Coliseum, Athens, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 28, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
