There’s a ranked-on-ranked Big Ten matchup on the hardcourt to look forward to Saturday as the No. 17 Purdue Boilermakers head to Eugene to face the Oregon Ducks.
The Ducks are 2.5-point favorites, but my Purdue vs. Oregon predictions have faith in the underdogs.
Check out my college basketball picks for Saturday, January 18.
Purdue vs Oregon prediction
My best bet
Purdue +2.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Oregon Ducks have had a tremendous early season run, racking up a 15-2 record under Dana Altman. Now that I’ve given them their flowers, let me discuss their flaws.
They’ve been beating the bottom of the Big Ten lately, notching narrow wins over Penn State (2-5 Big Ten), Ohio State (2-5), and Maryland (3-4) by an average margin of 2.3 points. Two of their “real” tests in conference play resulted in a close loss to UCLA (71-73) and a blowout loss to Illinois (77-109), both at home.
Their underlying metrics aren’t what you’d expect from a 15-2 Big Ten team ranked 13th in the country. The Ducks check in at 25th in KenPom, ranking 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 40th in defensive efficiency. They’re good — just perhaps not elite.
The Purdue Boilermakers, on the other hand, have been tremendously impressive and look like a National Championship contender again this season. They rank 10th in KenPom and have been laying waste to the competition, winning six straight games by an average margin of 20.3 points. Zach Edey who?
It’s been no problem without the big man as point guard Braden Smith has continued his ascent, averaging 15.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game. Trey Kaufman-Renn has been a force (17.6 points, 6.2 rebounds), and you know exactly what you’ll get from Fletcher Loyer (14.1 points).
Purdue is peaking right now — or is at least finding its finest form. Oregon is barely squeaking by teams at the bottom of the conference, so I can’t feel confident about its ability to pull away from a Top 10 team.
The Boilermakers have been printing money lately, covering the spread in five straight games. They’ve proven capable of overcoming difficult road environments, covering the spread in three straight Big Ten road games.
The Ducks haven’t exactly set the world on fire at Matthew Knight Arena, going 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Eugene. I’ll bet on some regression coming their way after a strong start to the year, albeit one that isn’t fully supported by the numbers or the eye test.
Purdue vs Oregon same-game parlay (SGP)
Purdue +2.5
Over 147.5
Oregon has tended to get into high-scoring games at Matthew Knight Arena, going 4-1 O/U in its last five home games.
There’s an expectation for points in this contest as both teams are better offensively than defensively. The Ducks are 19 spots higher in adjusted offensive efficiency (21st) than defensive efficiency (40th), while the Boilermakers’ margin is 26 (ninth on offense, 35th on defense).
Purdue’s offense is clicking, scoring 79 or more points in four of its last six games, including 104 against Nebraska two games ago. Smith’s poise at point guard allows the offense to travel well, and the team should find openings behind the arc against a Ducks defense that ranks 140th in 3-point defense vs. the average opponent (per Haslametrics).
On the flip side, Oregon is one of the best mid-range shooting teams in the country and should find looks against a Purdue defense that typically funnels shooters to that zone (232nd in mid-range attempt rate).
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Purdue vs Oregon odds
Purdue vs Oregon live odds
Purdue vs Oregon opening odds
- Spread: Purdue +2.5 | Oregon -2.5
- Moneyline: Purdue +120 | Oregon -140
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 | Under 147.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Purdue vs Oregon betting trend to know
Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against teams ranked in the Top 50 in KenPom. Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Oregon.
How to watch Purdue vs Oregon
| Location: | Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-18-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Purdue vs Oregon key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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