After an impending winter storm moved the tip time up two hours, No. 6 Tennessee will welcome Florida to town in the latest college basketball odds.
The Gators have shown some flashes of being a reasonably dangerous team this season but have lost two of their last three games. That said, Florida does enter this matchup off an absolute thrashing against Arkansas by 22 points.
On the other side of things, Tennessee has been relatively dominant. While the Vols most recently fell to Mississippi State, it was a loss that ended a seven-game winning streak. They ended up rebounding over the weekend with a close win against Georgia.
What's the best bet in this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Florida vs. Tennessee on January 16.
Florida vs Tennessee best odds
Florida vs Tennessee picks and predictions
Weather is becoming a significant consideration in this scenario, not due to its impact on the court conditions but rather its potential influence on fan attendance. With that in mind, we must account for it in our handicap. Homecourt advantage for Tennessee may not be as strong as what it typically is.
Scoring is usually a dubious task when facing the Vols defense, but Tennessee has shown a few weak links lately. A muted crowd also gives us some unaccounted-for value. I made this total 162.5, so there's enough of an edge in the 159.5 number.
Florida will look to increase its tempo against Tennessee and execute in transition. The Gators recently thrived off this strategy in their last game against Arkansas, scoring 25 points in transition.
Todd Golden's team should thrive in the halfcourt with its cutting actions, as the Gators rank in the Top 10% of college basketball efficiency on these sets. The trio of Tyrese Samuel, Alex Condon, and Thomas Haugh could all play a part in exposing a Vols defense that has allowed 1.2 points per possession on these sets.
On the other side of the ball, I expect Tennessee to have great success in various places on the court. This is an average Florida defense, as we've seen throughout SEC play.
One area in particular where the Vols should feast is in the post. Florida's defense now grades out as the fourth-worst in the SEC defending post-ups, and Tennessee has an array of options to attack this. Both Tobe Awaka and Dalton Knecht are growing in confidence when scoring around that rim, and Jonas Aidoo already possesses that quality.
Take the Over tonight. Typically, the home crowd has at least some effect on opposing teams' jump shooters. That should be reduced significantly, which is good news for the Gators. On the other side of the ball, the Vols will see plenty of scoring opportunities in the halfcourt.
My best bet: Over 158.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Florida vs Tennessee same-game parlay
Over 158.5
Tyrese Samuel Over 11.5 points
Jonas Aidoo Over 10.5 points
I mentioned Samuel earlier, and we like his matchup tonight. He comes off his best game of the season, and we expect the Gators senior to keep riding that confidence. Samuel will be featured in both cutting actions as well as post-ups, which are the two weakest points of the Vols' halfcourt defense.,
The second prop we'll grab is Aidoo to eclipse his points total. Like Samuel, the Vols forward is playing some of his best basketball of the season right now and now faces another favorable matchup in the paint.
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Florida vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis
After bouncing back and forth from 9.5, the spread has resettled at the opening 10-point margin. I want no part of this spread; my projections made this game a 9-point win for the Vols.
Tennessee's physicality and strong presence in the interior are likely to take a toll on a Florida team that lacks the personnel to contend with such pressure throughout the entire 40 minutes. However, the Gators are gradually evolving into a formidable opponent for any team, and with some defensive improvements, they could emerge as a serious contender in the SEC. Florida's adept shotmaking should ultimately keep this conference matchup competitive.
When it comes to the total, Florida has been a strong Over team throughout the year, with five of its last six games going in that direction. Tennessee, not to be outdone, has been Over-friendly lately as well, with three of its last four games trending that way. There should be enough offensive fireworks to get this one home tonight.
Florida vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Florida has hit the game total Over in 21 of its last 32 games (+10.00 Units / 28% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Tennessee.
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Florida vs Tennessee game info
| Location: | Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, TN |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 16, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Florida vs Tennessee key injuries
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