Mark your calendars. Clear your schedules. Ready the popcorn. It’s time for the WCC Championship as the No. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs face the No. 1 Saint Mary’s Gaels tonight.
What could be better than a championship game featuring the West Coast’s best rivalry?
Saint Mary’s has held a narrow advantage in this matchup lately, yet is listed as the underdog (+3). Check out why I disagree with that number in my Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, March 11.
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's prediction
Who will win Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's?
The Saint Mary’s Gaels will capture the 2025 WCC Championship.
It’s been a magical run for Randy Bennett’s squad, sitting at 28-4 and finishing conference play with a 17-1 record. The Gaels have won three straight against the Gonzaga Bulldogs, with all three being outright upsets as the bookmakers struggle to give them their deserved respect. They’re one of the best-coached teams in the country and have been clicking all year. After picking up a comfortable win over Pepperdine in the semifinals, they’ll be the more well-rested team as Gonzaga went wire-to-wire with San Francisco.
My best bet
Saint Mary's +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Saint Mary’s Gaels have the upper hand in this rivalry, winning four of the last five meetings. This season, they captured a 62-58 victory in Moraga and a 74-67 win in Spokane. So why are they catching 3.5 points against the spread?
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are an analytics darling, ranking eighth overall on KenPom. They’re one of the most talented teams in the country and, at their best, can beat anyone.
The thing is, the results just haven’t been there this season. They played teams like West Virginia, Kentucky, UConn, and UCLA close in the non-conference and lost them all. They suffered back-to-back conference losses for the first time in over a decade, not to mention the two defeats to rival Saint Mary’s.
The Zags undeniably have the talent to win this game, but I’ve seen them settle for bad shots over prolonged stretches while lacking cohesiveness too often to bank on them. There’s no reason for them to settle for bad shots — they should frequently get good looks — and yet, time and again, they play a suboptimal game against good opponents.
The metrics are still through the roof thanks to a ton of blowout wins — last night’s 85-76 victory over San Francisco was just the third time the Zags won a game by a single-digit margin. Mark Few’s squad hasn’t perfectly strung it together this season despite the overwhelming potential and, at a certain point, it becomes too late.
Saint Mary’s is a bit of the opposite, routinely grinding games out for victories with Randy Bennett’s patented methodical style. That may not look as pretty on the analytic websites as what Gonzaga has been doing, but they’re the more cohesive team that finds winning plays with the game on the line. That matters in what’s likely a tight matchup.
The Gaels lead the nation in rebounding percentage (57.4%) and their tempo will bother Gonzaga, which prefers to get out and run. They’ve been one of the country’s best teams on the road, ranking third in Haslametrics’ away from home metric. The defense ranks fifth in adjusted efficiency since February 1 (BartTorvik) and is the most reliable unit on the court.
Few’s squad is at its best when Graham Ike dominates the post, but Saint Mary’s has a good counter with Mitchell Saxen. Harry Wessels and his massive 7-foot-1, 255-pound frame has given Ike — who likes to play bully ball — fits in the past. The Gaels rank 14th in near-proximity field-goal defense (Haslametrics) and are well-poised to limit what the Zags do best.
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's same-game parlay (SGP)
Saint Mary's +3.5
Under 137.5
These teams have cashed the Under in six straight meetings, a trend I can’t ignore as the coaches and style of play remain the same. Bennett and Few know each other inside and out, creating a bit of a stalemate where each side knows what the other's planning.
Saint Mary’s is one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 359th in adjusted tempo (KenPom). The Under correlates more with the Gaels covering as they’re more likely to exceed expectations if they can slow Gonzaga down and play the game at their preferred speed.
Few stated after last night’s win that he wants to force turnovers as that’s worked against Saint Mary’s. That may be more difficult to pull off than it seems as the Gaels rank just 349th in turnovers committed per game (9.5).
My worry with the Under is Gonzaga has repeatedly found success against Saint Mary’s by throwing in more full-court pressure. This speeds up a methodical offense and allows the Bulldogs to take advantage of their superior athleticism and speed. That being said, Few hasn’t pulled out this card as often as I’d expect, so it’s not exactly bankable that he goes to it frequently.
Another strategy Few has also deployed more zone defense in this matchup, which has worked well at times and could counteract the full-court pressure angle to create a low-scoring environment per usual with these two teams.
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Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's odds
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's live odds
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's opening odds
- Spread: Gonzaga -3.5 (-110) | Saint Mary's +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Gonzaga -165 | Saint Mary's +140
- Over/Under: Over 137 (-115) | Under 137 (-105)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's betting trend to know
Saint Mary’s is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Find more college basketball betting trends for Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's.
How to watch Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's
| Location | Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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