The race for second place in the West Coast Conference standings comes down to tonight's regular season finale between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the San Francisco Dons.
It’s a coveted spot, as the top two seeds receive a quadruple bye to the semifinals.
My Gonzaga vs. San Francisco predictions are backing the Zags, as broken down in my college basketball picks for Saturday, March 1.
Gonzaga vs San Francisco prediction
My best bet
Gonzaga -9 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The most important part of this handicap is that the game will be played at the Chase Center, not the War Memorial Gymnasium. While it goes in the books as a home game for the San Francisco Dons, it’s more of a neutral site than is typical.
That’s meaningful because USF has been unbeatable at home, racking up a 16-0 record. You can guarantee that Chris Gerlufsen and his squad would be more comfortable and confident in the confines of their homecourt.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have much more experience in big games on a neutral court, having played against four ranked teams at neutral sites already this season. While they lost all three of those games (Kentucky, UConn, UCLA), the margins were tight (+6-point differential overall). Mark Few is used to coaching big games on this stage, and many of his players have “been there, done that”.
The second factor is that the Zags have plenty of motivation to lock up the No. 2 seed in the WCC tournament. The same could be said of USF, but I’d argue that Gonzaga still has a point to prove.
You can bet that Gonzaga did not take kindly to going 0-2 against Saint Mary’s this season and that they’re feeling the disappointment of what could become a lost season. Is this a program in decline, or is the best basketball still ahead this season? Locking up the No. 2 seed would go a long way in proving the answer.
Gonzaga has also underplayed its metrics. The Bulldogs rank ninth overall at KenPom, which screams “National Title contender”, but are predicted as just a No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament (per Bracket Matrix).
It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if the Zags catch a heater to end the year. They have one of the best point guards in the country (Ryan Nembhard and his 9.8 assists per game), three quality bigs (Graham Ike, Braden Huff, and Ben Gregg combine for 37.2 ppg), and solid wing play. They’re 3-1 ATS in their last four games after a 9-17 ATS start to the season.
Few has dominated the Dons in his career, holding a 54-4 career record. That includes 31 straight victories over the Dons — an unbeaten streak that has held since February of 2012. Twenty-four of those wins came by double digits.
Gonzaga vs San Francisco same-game parlay (SGP)
Gonzaga -8.5
Under 156.5
Gonzaga has trended toward the Under lately, going 2-6 O/U in its last six games. That has coincided with an added emphasis on the defensive end, and the numbers back it up (21st in adjusted defensive efficiency since February 1 per BartTorvik).
USF has also locked in, ranking 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency during that time period. The offense has lagged behind (129th), resulting in a 3-4 O/U record.
One of the “Overs” in that span was the first meeting between these clubs, an 88-77 Gonzaga win. It was an odd game script in which the Dons raced out to a 9-2 lead and forced the Zags to play catch-up for much of the game, which resulted in a 50-point second half from Few’s squad as they pushed the pedal to the metal.
The Dons' biggest defensive weakness is fouling too much (244th in opponent free throw attempts per game), but the Zags don’t exactly press the issue there (134th in free-throw attempt rate per Haslametrics). On the flip side, the Dons shoot a lot of 3-pointers but aren’t particularly efficient (34.2%), and the Zags play great perimeter defense (30.7% allowed from long range).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Gonzaga vs San Francisco odds
Gonzaga vs San Francisco live odds
Gonzaga vs San Francisco opening odds
- Spread: Gonzaga -9.5 (-110) | San Francisco +9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Gonzaga -425 | San Francisco +325
- Over/Under: Over 157 (-115) | Under 157 (-105)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Gonzaga vs San Francisco betting trend to know
Gonzaga is 31-0 SU in its last 31 meetings with USF, with 24 of those victories coming by double digits. Find more college basketball betting trends for Gonzaga vs. San Francisco.
How to watch Gonzaga vs San Francisco
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Saturday, 3-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Gonzaga vs San Francisco key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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