Houston vs TCU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Cougars Claw Back

The No. 2 Houston Cougars head to Fort Worth on Saturday to face the TCU Horned Frogs in college basketball action. Houston will try to bounce back from its first loss of the season, while the unranked Horned Frogs are aiming for back-to-back wins against Top-10 opponents after beating No. 9 Oklahoma on Wednesday.

Oddsmakers don't expect them to get it though, with college basketball odds installing the Cougars as 5.5-point road favorites with the Over/Under at 136.5 for this Big 12 showdown. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Houston vs. TCU on Saturday, January 13.

Houston vs TCU best odds

Houston vs TCU picks and predictions

The TCU Horned Frogs almost upset No. 3 Kansas on the road last week before beating No. 9 Oklahoma 80-71 at home on Wednesday night. While they are unranked, they were 5.5-point favorites against the Sooners due to the stark home-court advantage that college basketball can bring. Now they host a Houston Cougars side that was the last undefeated team in college hoops until falling on the road earlier this week. 

They say that defense travels, and while Houston's defense traveled to Iowa State on Tuesday, their offense got left behind like Kevin McCallister at Christmas. The Cougars shot just 38% from the field while turning the ball over 16 times in a 57-53 loss to the Cyclones. After running the table in their non-conference schedule, Houston began conference play with an 89-55 beatdown of West Virginia and it looked like they would fit right into the Big 12.

However, they got a taste of just how much tougher their new conference will be after years of dominating the AAC. That said, this is a classic bounce-back spot for Houston and a typical letdown spot for TCU. Keep in mind that while the Cougars knocked down just 7 of 26 (27%) shots from deep and had 16 turnovers against Iowa State, they entered that contest shooting 35.8% from the arc and averaging just 9.1 turnovers per game. Those numbers are unsustainable against the tough press defenses in the Big 12, but they are too talented, experienced, and well-coach not to find their footing even in this conference.

The Horned Frogs are a team that thrives on the fast break, ranking first in the country in transition frequency on offense and fourth in efficiency per ShotQualityBets. However, the Cougars do a terrific job of slowing down even the most athletic teams they face and are 335th in defensive transition frequency and 341st in opponent average possession length. 

The Horned Frogs also do an excellent job of getting to the rim, ranking 13th in frequency and fifth in efficiency, but the Cougars excel at preventing opponents from getting to the rim (331st in defensive frequency). The Horned Frogs don't do a good enough job of knocking down shots from mid-range and the perimeter to unlock a stingy Houston defense that has shown for years that it can contain all but the best shooting teams in the country. 

Houston is a team perfectly built to handle the TCU's offensive strengths, and they are good enough on the other end of the floor to bounce back from a rough performance in Ames. With KenPom projecting a 7-point Houston victory in this spot, go against the line movement and grab the Cougars at anything -4.5 or better. 

My best bet: Houston -3.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Houston vs TCU same-game parlay

Houston -4.5

Under 136.5

Emmanuel Miller Over 0.5 3s

+525 at DraftKings

This has all the makings of a low-scoring contest with Houston playing at one of the slowest tempos in the country and having the ability to slow down TCU's high-paced attack. That said, we also know that the Cougars haven't been filling up the hoop on the road. They've posted mediocre shooting numbers in both games they've played in enemy territory this season since they shot just 34% from the field and scored 66 points against Xavier earlier this season before struggling in Ames on Tuesday. 

The Horned Frogs also have a tenacious defense and rank 11th in the country in opponent turnover rate while Houston leads the nation in that category. With both defenses having the ability to disrupt these offenses, the Under looks like the play. 

Emmanuel Miller leads TCU with 17.0 ppg, and while he's not a high-volume 3-point shooter he is efficient from deep, converting 39.2% of his triples last year and 37.1% so far this season. He has knocked down at least one trey in five of his last six games, and with Houston's stingy defense preventing the Horned Frogs from getting to the hoop, he should be forced into taking some deep looks tonight. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Houston vs TCU spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread hit the board on Friday night with Houston at -5.5 and the O/U at 138.5. Both numbers were immediately bet down with sharp money coming in on TCU and the Under, shifting the line to -3.5 and the total to 136 by Friday. It met resistance at those numbers and ticked up slightly to between -4 and -4.5 and 136.5 at most books by 11:00 a.m. ET. 

Despite losing on Tuesday, the Cougars remain the No. 1 team in the KenPom ratings and have the top-rated defense as well. They are 4-2-1 ATS in their last last seven games but they've played just two true road games all season and didn't cover in either one.

The Horned Frogs have gone a sizzling 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and are 29th in the KenPom ratings. TCU has been solid on both ends of the floor and sits 36th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 39th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Houston vs TCU betting trend to know

The Under is 11-4 in Houston's 15 games this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. TCU.

Houston vs TCU game info

Houston vs TCU key injuries

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