The No. 10 Iowa State Cyclones (18-5, 7-3 Big 12) have won five of their last six games to move into second place in the Big 12 standings. They’ll look to stay hot with a road trip to Fifth Third Arena to face the Cincinnati Bearcats (15-8, 4-6).
Wes Miller’s newcomers have just three wins in their last nine games but have played in a lot of close games. There are no easy outs in this league, and Tuesday night’s showdown is expected to be another rock fight in a game with a razor-thin spread.
Looking at the college basketball odds, the Bearcats are 1.5-point favorites at home while the total resides at 137.
Breaking down both teams’ offensive and defensive profiles, I’ve taken a particular interest in the total and have identified a best bet for this Big 12 showdown.
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Iowa State vs. Cincinnati on Tuesday, February 13.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati best odds
Iowa State vs Cincinnati picks and predictions
The Iowa State Cyclones look the part of a genuine National Title contender with an expectation of reaching the Sweet 16 if not further. They’re currently in second place in the toughest conference in America and are ranked in the Top 10 both in the AP Poll and on KenPom.
T.J. Otzelberger’s squad has a terrific backcourt in Keshon Gilbert (13.9 ppg) and Tamin Lipsey (13.2 ppg). The two contribute much more than just in the scoring department, combining to average 9.7 rebounds, 9.8 assists, and 4.7 steals per game.
Freshman forward Milan Momcilovic (12.6 ppg) is a certified shot-maker and three other players average between 8.4 and 9.8 ppg. The defense is the calling card, however, as the Cyclones rank third in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. They hold opponents to just 62 ppg on 40.4% shooting.
They hit the road Tuesday night to face a conference newcomer in the Cincinnati Bearcats, who have lost two of three games but have been competitive despite rocking an unappealing record.
Cincinnati games certainly make you hold your breath as it has a penchant for playing close contests. Eight of its 10 league games have been decided by five or fewer points.
Wes Miller’s squad embodies the all-for-one, one-for-all approach as five different players average between 9.3 and 12.2 ppg while three more average between 6.9 and 7.1 ppg. Daniel Skillings leads the way (12.2) while Day Day Thomas (10.7) is a pure-bred bucket-getter.
The Bearcats like to get downhill and attack the rim, ranking ninth nationally in near-proximity attempt rate per Haslametrics. Their offensive outlook is diminished in what appears to be a very difficult matchup on paper. The Cyclones are tough overall defensively but excel at walling off the paint — their opponents are attempting just 22% of their shots at the rim (Hoop-Math), the lowest mark nationally.
On the flip side of things, the Cyclones like to take a lot of mid-range jumpers offensively as 34% of their field goal attempts have been two-point jumpers (21st nationally). Cincinnati is adept in the mid-range defensively, ranking 14th in mid-range field goal percentage allowed vs. the average opponent (Haslametrics).
When they aren’t taking mid-range jumpers, the Cyclones are superb at converting easy looks down low. They rank fifth nationally in field-goal percentage at the rim (69.7%), although easy looks may not be aplenty against a Bearcats defense ranking 26th in near-proximity defense vs. the average opponent (Haslametrics).
Both teams forecast well on the defense end and projected pace isn’t anything crazy, so I’ll grab the Under.
My best bet: Under 136.5 (-110 at bet365)
Iowa State vs Cincinnati same-game parlay
Under 136
Daniel Skillings Over 1.5 made 3s
Iowa State +1.5
While Iowa State's defense does a great job walling off the paint, it isn’t scared of letting opponents let fly from downtown. In fact, 45.2% of opponent field goal attempts have come from behind the arc (Hoop-Math), the 13th-highest mark nationally.
I expect this to benefit Cincinnati sniper Daniel Skillings, who has hit multiple 3-pointers in four of his last five games. His role has only increased as the year has progressed and he’s now hoisted double-digit shot attempts in seven of his last eight games. I like his Over on this prop regardless of game script.
The last leg will feature Iowa State +1.5. This team is dominant defensively, has two stars in the backcourt, and is well-rounded in the frontcourt. It’s hard not to like what I’m seeing. This isn’t a tricky scheduling spot in my opinion and Cincinnati is just 2-3 straight up at home in conference play.
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Iowa State vs Cincinnati spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened as a pick ‘em before heading in Cincinnati’s direction. It moved up to -2 at some spots before settling in at -1.5 across the board at current. There have been a lot of changes already and it seems like there’s some two-way action, so be sure to track future fluctuations using our college basketball line movement tool before placing your wager.
Iowa State has been printing money for bettors at 15-7 ATS. That includes a 5-1 ATS record across its last six games.
Cincinnati is 12-11 ATS overall but has also been a covering machine lately, going 4-1 ATS across its last five games. Part of that is due to its ability to keep games close nearly regardless of opponent, although that factor is mitigated on Tuesday night considering the spread is so close it’s essentially a pick ‘em.
Something will have to give here as the Bearcats have usually been tough at home (17-3 straight up across its last 20 games) while the Cyclones have been road warriors (5-2 ATS in their last seven road games).
The total opened at 138 but has settled at 136.5 across the board as of Tuesday morning. I’m in agreement with the downward movement considering I have a bet on the Under.
Otzelberger’s squad ranks 165th in adjusted tempo (per KenPom) while Miller’s squad is 200th. Part of Iowa State’s ranking is due to its guards wreaking havoc and forcing turnovers. The Cyclones rank third nationally with 10.8 steals per game and are led by Lipsey’s 2.95 thefts per game (fifth nationally).
The thing is, those steals-to-transition looks may not be easy to come by against a Bearcats team that protects the ball well, coughing up just 11.5 turnovers per game.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati betting trend to know
Cincinnati is 1-4 O/U across its last five games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Cincinnati.
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Iowa State vs Cincinnati game info
| Location: | Fifth Third Arena, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 13, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Iowa State vs Cincinnati key injuries
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