Iowa State vs Houston Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Expect More Offense Than Total Suggests

The two best teams in the Big 12 Tournament bracket during the regular season, perhaps it’s only fitting that the Iowa State Cyclones battle the top-seeded Houston Cougars for the conference title tonight.

The Cougars laid waste to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, while the Cyclones dispatched the Baylor Bears in an anti-climactic semifinal Friday night.

Houston has been tabbed as a 5.5-point favorite in the college basketball odds, and they’ll be looking for the regular season and tournament title double before diving into March Madness odds.

Does Iowa State have a conference tournament odds upset in them at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City? Read below for my free Iowa State vs Houston college basketball picks for Saturday, March 16.

Iowa State vs Houston best odds

Iowa State vs Houston picks and predictions

It’s a clash of the NCAA's top two teams in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.

Houston has the best scoring defense in the nation, limiting teams to 56.6 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field (second) and 29.6% from beyond the arc (17th). Iowa State presents one of the few defenses that can go toe-to-toe with the Cougars, allowing just 61.9 points per game (fifth) on 40.4% shooting (24th).

Their pressure gets results, forcing 17.7 turnovers per contest, the second-best mark in college hoops.

Powered by another stellar defensive effort, the Cougars crushed Texas Tech 82-59 on Friday to win their 11th straight game. The Red Raiders shot 33.3% from the field, including a lowly 7-for-22 mark from distance, as Houston forced 19 turnovers, leading to 26 points.

UH’s offense did its part, shooting 49.2% from the field including a healthy 12-for-28 mark from 3-point range.

The Cyclones blanketed Baylor for most of the evening in a 76-62 win, holding the Bears to only 39% shooting, while limiting the Big 12’s best 3-point team to a paltry 20.8% on a 5-for-24 performance. Despite getting outrebounded 42-28, ISU made up the difference by forcing 13 turnovers, converting those into 16 points.

A team whose offense doesn’t always meet the defense’s standards, the Cyclones managed to shoot 45% from the field, while also connecting on 10 of 20 makes from three. Part of that success came from outscoring the Bears 16-5 in transition.

This will be the third meeting between these teams this season. Iowa State handed Houston one of its three losses on the year in a 57-53 win on Jan 9. Houston returned the favor on Feb 19, dumping the Cyclones 73-65.

My eyes go directly to the minuscule total, currently set at 122.5. Yes, these teams went Under this score in their first meeting, but the Cougars showed an offense worthy of its 12th-place ranking in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric on Friday.

Iowa State, meanwhile, has not been an offensive dud in KC, putting up 76 points in back-to-back games.

Even a decent spurt of shotmaking or a parade of free throws can upend this total with ease, and I’m banking on that when the Big 12’s two best teams battle.

My best bet: Over 122.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Iowa State vs Houston same-game parlay

Over 122.5

Jamal Shead Over 5.5 assists

Keshon Gilbert Under 13.5 points

+455 at DraftKings

If it ain’t broke...

That’s my philosophy as I go back to the well with Jamal Shead’s 5.5 assists prop. On Friday, the senior guard dished out 10 dimes alongside his 12 points. Shead has topped this assist mark in eight of his last nine contests, falling short by one in the quarterfinal against TCU. One of those games was against these same Cyclones, as he went for 26 points and six dimes.

And I’m taking Houston’s defense to neutralize its opponent’s top scorer. On Thursday, TCU’s Emanuel Lewis, the fourth-leading scorer in the Big 12 was doused to 1-for-10 shooting and three points. On Friday, the conference's fifth-leading scorer, Pop Isaacs, could only muster six points on 2-for-13 shooting.

That could mean bad news for Keshon Gilbert, who leads Iowa State with 13.5 points per game. While he put up 17 points in the February loss, he was buoyed by a 3-for-4 shooting effort from 3-point range.

Only one player — Texas Tech’s Chase McMillan — has even reached 14 points against Houston in the tourney.

Bet on the Cougars making life miserable for Gilbert as he tries to top his 13.5-point line.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Iowa State vs Houston spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread has lived in the 4.5-to-5.5-point range since the final teams in the Big 12 Tourney were confirmed.

Iowa State is one of the top cover teams in the nation, with an impressive 21-10-2 record against the spread. They’re 1-0-1 ATS against Houston this year. Meanwhile, the Cougars are treading water in this category, just 16-15-2 ATS on the year.

That 122.5-point total is actually down two points from where it opened on Friday night. Four of the last five Houston games have gone Under, sending their record to 19-14-0 O/U.

Iowa State is at the break-even mark, with 16 of its 33 games hitting the Over.

Iowa State vs Houston betting trend to know

Six of Iowa State’s last seven games have gone Under the total. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Houston.

Iowa State vs Houston game info

Iowa State vs Houston key injuries

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