The Wisconsin Badgers haven’t played in nearly two weeks. They hit the court Friday looking for their first win in Big Ten conference action when they host the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Both teams enter with identical 10-3 records, and my Iowa vs. Wisconsin predictions is calling for plenty of points from a pair of elite offenses.
Find out more in my free college basketball picks for Friday, January 3.
Iowa vs Wisconsin prediction
My best bet
Over 162.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Iowa Hawkeyes roll into Madison as winners of three straight, including a 112-70 demolition of New Hampshire last game. It was the second time in three starts they’ve topped 100 points.
On the year, Iowa leads the Big Ten in scoring, dropping 89.7 points per game, while ranking Top 3 in both field goal shooting (51.1%) and 3-point shooting 38.3%)
That output is a big reason KenPom has them ranked 21st in offensive efficiency.
They’re also inside KenPom’s Top 95 in defensive efficiency, despite ranking second last in the conference in points allowed at 74.2 per game. The only stat they stand out in is defending the arc, where they are Top 20, holding teams to 28.3% shooting.
The Wisconsin Badgers are right there in offensive prowess, ranking 17th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency. They rank eighth in the Big Ten, scoring 81.5 points per game, but their shooting splits aren’t great.
Wisconsin ranks second-last in field goal shooting in the conference at 44.9% and tied for 14th shooting from distance at a 32.5% clip.
We’ll see just how crisp the Badgers look, as they haven’t played since Dec 22, beating Detroit Mercy 76-53. Playing at home will help, as they are 7-1 at the Kohl Center so far this season.
These teams love to put up points in head-to-head matchups, which is how Iowa likes to play, as they sit 23rd in KenPom’s tempo metric. The Hawkeyes have cashed the Over in six of their last seven.
Iowa won the most recent meeting between these teams, an 88-86 OT thriller on Feb 17, 2024. But that doesn’t mean the Badgers can’t keep up: they had won the previous four meetings, and they have hit the Over in three of their last four.
The Hawkeyes and Badgers have hit the over in four of the last five matchups.
Iowa vs Wisconsin same-game parlay
Over 162.5
Owen Freeman Over 16.5 points
John Tonje Over 19.5 points
Let’s lean in on each team’s leading scorer to build out a same-game parlay. For Iowa, forward Owen Freeman leads the team at 17.1 points per game, while shooting a crisp 66.1% from the the field.
The sophomore has been remarkably consistent so far this season, scoring between 15 and 22 points in 10 of the 11 games he has played so far this year.
After 14 points in his first-ever game against Wisconsin, he followed it up with 20 on a perfect 6-for-6 shooting night from the field in an 88-86 OT win.
The books have kept the number in line with Badgers’ leading scorer John Tonje’s regular scoring figures at 19.5. He averages 19.2 points per game on the season for Wisconsin.
Tonje, however, is coming off his two worst scoring games of the season, scoring 11 in an 83-74 win over Butler, and then dipping lower last game, scoring just nine against Detroit Mercy.
What’s noticeable is the senior guard shot a combined 14 field goals in the two games, after recording at least 11 field goal attempts in nine of his previous 11.
In an important conference matchup, his shooting volume should rise, as will his scoring line.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa vs Wisconsin odds
Iowa vs Wisconsin live odds
Iowa vs Wisconsin opening odds
- Spread: Iowa +5.5 | Wisconsin -5.5
- Moneyline: Iowa +210 | Wisconsin -251
- Over/Under: Over 162 | Under 162
Odds courtesy of bet365
Iowa vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
The Badgers have just one loss in their last 23 home games vs unranked opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Wisconsin.
How to watch Iowa vs Wisconsin
| Location: | Kohl Center, Madison, WI |
| Date: | Friday, 1-3-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fox Sports 1 |
Iowa vs Wisconsin key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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