When the Baylor Bears face the Kansas State Wildcats to open tonight’s evening session of the Big 12 Tournament, it could be an NCAA Tournament springboard. Right now, Baylor is expected to slip into the Big Dance, while Kansas State should probably look forward to the NIT.
However, only one game separated these two in the Big 12 standings. The Bears notched a couple worthwhile non-conference wins, while the Wildcats gladly beat George Washington and Cleveland State. That explains the current postseason discrepancies, but could an upset tonight change that?
My Kansas State vs. Baylor predictions and college basketball picks are not bold enough to expect that upset, but they do anticipate the Wildcats keeping things close after tip at 7 ET on Wednesday, March 12.
Kansas State vs Baylor prediction
Who will win Kansas State vs Baylor?
If looking for value, the correct choice is to bet on the Kansas State moneyline, available at +200 at bet365. When they're clicking, the Wildcats are more than capable of springing an upset. An early-February surge highlighted Kansas State’s ceiling, enjoying four straight upsets as part of a six-game winning streak.
Across the entire Big 12 season, the Wildcats went 4-5 outright as underdogs of up to six points. That record alone highlights the value of trusting Kansas State as a short dog. Tonight’s stakes may underscore those hopes.
My best bet: Kansas State +5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Baylor Bears deserve credit for beating Arkansas in its second game of the season and St. John’s in double overtime in November. Without those two wins, the Bears would probably be on the wrong side of the bubble this weekend, but after that tight victory against the Red Storm in the Bahamas, something went wrong for Baylor.
The Bears fell apart compared to bookmakers’ expectations. After a 3-1 ATS start, including that win against Arkansas, Baylor went 0-4 ATS in its next four and 1-5 immediately preceding Big 12 competition. That’s when things went from bad to worse.
The Bears went 5-12-3 ATS in conference play this season, including 5-8 ATS as favorites and 3-5 ATS as single-digit favorites. These trends have not improved in recent weeks, with Baylor going 2-6 ATS since Feb. 10, including 0-5 as a favorite.
Let’s repeat that last thought: Baylor has gone 0-5 ATS as a favorite in the last month, falling short of bookmaker’s expectations by an average of 5.2 points in those five games. Something about expecting success bodes badly for the Bears.
Meanwhile, the Kansas State Wildcats went 8-4 ATS as a single-digit underdog in Big 12 play, buoyed by an above-average defense that limits open looks from deep. Baylor relies on 3-pointers for more points than the average Big 12 team, so that particular Wildcats strength could be the key to continuing the Bears’ failures as favorites.
Kansas State vs Baylor same-game parlay (SGP)
Kansas State +5.5
Under 137.5
V.J. Edgecombe Under 1.5 trees
Kansas State’s last four games have all gone Under their totals, as have eight of the last nine Wildcat games. This defense deserves credit. Since Feb. 1, it's the No. 5 most efficient defense in the country, per barttorvik.com.
Its strength is clearly 3-point defense, holding foes to 26.2% from deep in that stretch, the No. 7 rate in the country.
V.J. Edgecombe is Baylor’s best player and the one most likely to chuck plenty tonight. He took nearly five 3-pointers per game in Big 12 play, making 39.1% of them. However, since Feb. 1, he's made fewer than two 3-pointers in seven of his 10 games. As Kansas State cuts into those looks tonight, it will show up most in Edgecombe’s numbers.
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Kansas State vs Baylor odds
Kansas State vs Baylor live odds
Kansas State vs Baylor opening odds
- Spread: Kansas State +6.5 | Baylor -6.5
- Moneyline: Kansas State +225 | Baylor -275
- Over/Under: Over 136 | Under 136
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Kansas State vs Baylor betting trend to know
Baylor’s last four games have gone Under the totals, matching Kansas State’s streak. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas State vs. Baylor.
How to watch Kansas State vs Baylor
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Kansas State vs Baylor key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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