Kansas State vs Kansas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Battle of Kansas Shoots For the Moon

The Sunflower Showdown is one of the oldest rivalries in college sports. Tonight's edition between the Kansas State Wildcats and No. 14-ranked Kansas Jayhawks promises to be one of the best in recent memory.

K-State defeated Kansas in overtime in their previous installment and enters this matchup in need of a victory after a heartbreaking, two-point away loss to Cincinnati.

Kansas has dropped two straight and three of their last five, but they have top-four seeding to play for and are hoping to avenge their earlier season Sunflower Showdown loss to the Wildcats. 

Who will win this Big 12 matchup? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for Kansas State and Kansas on Tuesday, March 7.

Kansas State vs Kansas best odds

Kansas State vs Kansas picks and predictions

The Kansas Jayhawks were No.1 in the preseason polls, and why not? 

Jayhawks head coach Bill Self just recruited former Michigan All-American Hunter Dickinson from the portal and pairing him with high-scoring guard Kevin McCullar Jr. was supposed to be the one-two punch the Jayhawks needed to ride to their third-consecutive Big 12 regular season title and second National Championship in three years. 

That ride has been a bumpy one. They’ve lost seven games in the conference and are 7-7 in Quad 1 wins. McCullar returned to the lineup Saturday after missing several games with a bone bruise. They lost that one and are just 3-3 since losing to the Kansas State Wildcats on February 5.

Not much was expected from the Wildcats this season, but they have won 17 games. If a Sunflower Showdown game wasn’t motivation enough, the Wildcats are looking for one more Quad 1 victory to hopefully receive an at-large bid into the Big Dance.

K-State has a tall task tonight, though. The Wildcats are 2-7 as the away team this season and haven’t won at Allen Fieldhouse in nearly 20 years. The Jayhawks have covered the spread in their last five meetings at “Fogg Allen” against the Wildcats, who will need a huge offensive game to beat Kansas on its Senior Night. 

Each of their last three meetings has ended Over the number — their previous meeting required overtime to total 145 points in a game Kansas shot just 20% from downtown. McCullar suiting up makes a big difference to the Kansas offense. His being healthy lengthens the rotation by one additional player and adds nearly 20 points to a thin bench that has had difficulty making up for when he wasn’t there. 

Finally, we should expect a faster-paced tempo that will benefit both offenses. Kansas will want to lay a beating on its rival, and it averages 79.2 per game at Allen. K-State plays better-than-average defense, but the Wildcats were the beneficiaries of a sub-par shooting night from downtown by the Jayhawks that won’t happen tonight.

K-State has outscored its 68.8 point away average in two of its last five and is 4-1-0 to the Over. This one is following the same trend as the last three Sunflower Showdowns and this one is ending Over the total tonight.

My best bet: Over 143 (-110 at DraftKings)

Kansas State vs Kansas same-game parlay

Over 143.5

Kansas State +11

+252 at DraftKings

We have a simple two-leg same-game parlay that correlates well with this being a higher-scoring game.

K-State hasn’t defeated Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse nor covered the spread there in a long time, but the Wildcats are 6-3-0 ATS as the away team meeting a Kansas side that is 7-7-1 ATS at home this season and is just 5-5-0 ATS over its last 10 games. The Wildcats have far more to play for and are 3-2-0 against the number in their previous five conference away matchups. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kansas State vs Kansas spread and Over/Under analysis

It was surprising to see the Wildcats open as high as +10.5 away dogs, especially since they are 6-3-0 ATS away from home and playing a Kansas side that doesn’t cover consistently enough to trust in a big rivalry game like the Sunflower Showdown. 

The more points, the merrier for Kansas State bettors, but +11 (-110) is likely the best number you’ll see before tip-off. The Jayhawks have covered as many as -15 points at home against Oklahoma State, but the Wildcats are a solid cover team and it won’t be easy for Kansas to cover a double-digit number.

That’s why the number has moved a bit on both sides and why the public will continue playing a half-point ping-pong match but I don’t expect anything fewer than +10 for K-State.

The total moved from an opening of 141.5 (-110) at DraftKings and has risen to 143.5 (-115). That’s a big jump, but I still like this one up to Over 144: This game could close as high as 145, and there is justification for this. K-State can sometimes score big, and we’ve seen Kansas allow more than its average in three of its previous five. 

Kansas State vs Kansas betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0-1 in Jayhawks' last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record, and the Over is 4-0-1 in Wildcats' last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas State vs. Kansas.

Kansas State vs Kansas game info

Kansas State vs Kansas key injuries

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