Kansas State vs Texas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Longhorns Lock In Early

The No. 6 Texas Longhorns host the Kansas State Wildcats in NCAA basketball action on Tuesday night.

Both KSU and Texas have identical 12-1 records and come into this Big 12 matchup riding six-game winning streaks. However, oddsmakers aren't expecting a close contest since college basketball odds opened with the Longhorns as 10-point home favorites before shortening to -8.5.

Here are my best free Wildcats vs. Longhorns college basketball betting picks and predictions for January 3.

Kansas State vs Texas best odds

Kansas State vs Texas picks and predictions

Kansas State is coming off an overtime victory against West Virginia at home. However, it looked awful in the early going and fell behind 18-5 while getting owned in every aspect of the game.

Flat starts have been a trend for this KSU squad, who also trailed Nevada at the half before winning in overtime, and were down 41-30 before a buzzer beater at the half against LSU.

It managed to fight back and win both of those games, but in its lone loss this season (one of only two true road games it has played) it had a 12-point halftime deficit against Butler and was unable to stage a comeback. 

The Longhorns have been getting off to fast starts this season, averaging 40 points per game in the first half while boasting an average scoring margin of +11.8 ppg during that frame.

That first-half scoring margin jumps up to +14.3 ppg at home and includes a couple of impressive early leads against Gonzaga and Creighton. 

I was reluctant to lay the points on the opening -10 line for the Longhorns, but with their first-half spread now sitting at -4, I'll gladly take that against a KSU team that has been way too sloppy at the beginning of games.

My best bet: Texas -4 first half  (-110 at bet365)

Kansas State vs Texas spread analysis

The Longhorns are coming off a come-from-behind victory against Oklahoma on the road. They went on a 10-1 run early in the second half and their clutch free-throw shooting down the stretch led to a nail-biting 70-69 victory. However, they failed to cover the spread against the Sooners and are now just 2-6 ATS in their last eight.

They've still won five games in a row under interim head coach Rodney Terry, who has been leading the team since head coach Chris Beard was suspended indefinitely three weeks ago. Texas has been terrific on both ends of the floor and ranks 10th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 13th on defense. 

Although the Longhorns have been ranked near the top of the country ever since hammering Gonzaga 93-74 in November, the Wildcats are just outside the AP Top 25 despite a 12-1 record.

The Wildcats are coming off their best win of the season after beating West Virginia 82-76. They turned things around in the second half against WVU thanks to clutch play from guard Markquis Nowell (23 points, 10 assists, and seven steals in 43 minutes) but they also benefitted from brutal free throw shooting from the Mountaineers who finished 20-for-38 from the charity stripe.

That's something Kansas State has benefitted from all season, with its opponent's free throw percentage of 63.4% the ninth-lowest in the country.

That's obviously not something it actually controls, and that number should regress against a Longhorns team that has knocked down 87.5% of their free throws over the last three games — including a 15-for-16 performance from the line against the Sooners.

The Wildcats have been stingy on the defensive end of the floor where they rank 38th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and limit foes to 41.5% shooting. They've been less impressive with the ball and rank 73rd in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Starting forward David N'Guessan (7.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 67.9 FG%) missed the game against WVU due to an injury and will be a game-time decision today. 

Both of these teams do an excellent job of pressuring ball handlers, with Texas 10th in the country in opponent turnover rate (24.2%) and KSU 15th (23.9%). However, the Longhorns do a much better job of taking care of the ball and rank 40th in turnover rate, while the Wildcats are just outside the Top 200.

Kansas State vs Texas Over/Under analysis

The Wildcats are better defensively than offensively, but they do have players that can get buckets. Nowell averages 14.4 ppg and a conference-high 8.5 apg while forward Keyontae Johnson leads the team with 17.7 ppg on 56.9% shooting. 

The Longhorns only have one player averaging over 11 ppg in point guard Marcus Carr (17.5 ppg, 4.1 apg) but they have excellent scoring depth and are 10th in the country in scoring (82.7 ppg) and 2-point percentage (58.2%).

They've also been playing at a far faster pace than we have seen from them in recent years, and their average length of possession of 15.7 seconds ranks 26th in the country. That uptick in tempo has contributed to the Over cashing in each of their last five games.

The Over is also 4-1 in the Wildcats' previous five contests and they've been playing at an above-average tempo on offense, as well with their average length of possession at 16.9 seconds.

Kansas State vs Texas betting trend to know

The Over is 6-1 in Kansas State's last seven road games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Kansas State vs. Texas.

Kansas State vs Texas game info

Kansas State vs Texas key injuries

Kansas State: David N'Guessan F (Questionable).
Texas: No injuries to report.

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