One of the marquee meetings of the Big 12 — Big East Battle sees the unbeaten Kansas Jayhawks travel to face a Creighton Bluejays team looking to notch a massive win at CHI Health Center.
KJ Adams has been a big reason why the Jayhawks have wins over UNC and Duke, and the Over on his assists prop presents terrific value in our Kansas vs. Creighton predictions.
My college basketball picks explain why on Wednesday, December 4 with tip set for 8:30 p.m. ET live on FS1.
Kansas vs Creighton prediction
My best bet
KJ Adams Jr. Over 2.5 assists (+155 at bet365)
My analysis
Most people are focusing on the 22-point performance KJ Adams Jr. put up in the Kansas Jayhawks' blowout win over Furman. But Adams has been a conduit at the offensive end of the floor all season, and he notched three assists in the game — a floor he’s reached in four straight.
Adams is part of a Kansas offense that moves the ball effectively and unselfishly, as exhibited by the second-best assist-to-turnover ratio in college basketball. The Jayhawks rank third in assists per game, and their ball movement has led to an adjusted shot quality that also ranks third nationally per ShotQuality.
The Creighton Bluejays' shot defense metrics are solid, but they have also boosted those numbers against some lowly competition. The Bluejays have faced only one Quad-1 team, as all five of their victories have come against Q3 or Q4 opponents.
And while the Bluejays have limited opportunities at the rim, they’ve shown poor defensive spacing on outside attempts. Kansas doesn’t take a lot of 3-point shots, but the Jayhawks do rank in the Top 125 in 3-point percentage. Inside the arc, they’re finishing at over a 61% clip, sixth-best in the country — despite a staggering 30.4% of their shot attempts being long-range 2-point jumpers.
In his last four games, Adams has posted an assist rate of at least 16%. That number has been between 18% and 21% in three of those contests, including an outing against Duke where he defended Cooper Flagg well at one end and dropped three dimes at the other.
Adams is third in assists per game on the team behind Dajuan Harris Jr. and backup guard Zeke Mayo. He’s going against a Creighton defense that doesn’t force turnovers very well but also doesn’t commit many shooting fouls. That means Kansas will see a high rate of possessions ending in shot attempts.
Both teams rank in the Top 100 in tempo, which will lead to a higher number of possessions for both squads. In addition, Creighton doesn’t do well at getting second-chance opportunities, which means a few more trips down the court. With how well the Jayhawks move the ball and Adams having a consistent floor, a price of +155 is exceptional value in this spot.
Kansas vs Creighton same-game parlay
KJ Adams Jr. Over 2.5 assists
Steven Ashworth 3+ threes
Kansas -3.5
Steven Ashworth is a high-volume shooter from downtown, with at least three 3-point makes in each of his last six games. He’s averaging over 8.4 long-range efforts per game, and Kansas opponents have been firing from deep with a 3-point attempt rate of nearly 43%.
Creighton has failed to cover in six of eight games this season with just one push. That includes losing by 11 to Nebraska as 10-point favorites and then being favored by 4.5 to San Diego State and losing by 18.
The Jayhawks have played much better opposition thus far and have consistently come out on top. With Ryan Kalkbrenner likely not being at 100%, Kansas' athleticism and depth will be too much for the Bluejays to overcome.
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Kansas vs Creighton odds
Kansas vs Creighton live odds
Kansas vs Creighton opening odds
- Spread: Kansas -3.5 (-110) | Creighton +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kansas -165 | Creighton +140
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kansas vs Creighton betting trend to know
Creighton has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. Creighton.
How to watch Kansas vs Creighton
| Location: | CHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, NE |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Kansas vs Creighton key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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